One thing that most South Asian governments like to propagate is the
idea that their relations with a hegemonic power like the United States
are basically equal, dignified, more or less symmetrical, and based on
respect for national sovereignty. Sometimes, even otherwise sensible
people buy this — to protect or soothe their national self-esteem.
Strategic analysts of course make a living out of prescribing how best
to use relations with the US to maximise national advantage within the
framework of ’equality’.
However, such equality, symmetry or parity is a dangerous delusion
especially in regard to Washington’s present, nastily belligerent,
neo-conservative avatar. Both Pakistan and India discovered this
recently on issues that cut close to what their governments regard as
their eminent domain: sovereignty and security.
The January 13 US bombing of a village in Bajaur Agency, killing 18
people, delivered a rude message. Washington will do whatever it likes
to advance its interests; it alone will determine the methods; it won’t
bother to consult ’friends’. In the present instance, the mere suspicion
that al-Qaeda’s Ayman al-Zawahiri might have been present in the Bajaur
village was enough for the US to rain ’Hellfire’ missiles from its
’Predator’ drones.
Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz’s protest that the action was conducted
without Pakistan’s consent has had absolutely no effect in Washington.
Nor has his insistence that no terrorists were killed — "where are the
bodies?" In fact, following his meeting with President Bush, Aziz
couldn’t give a straight answer to the question as to whether the
bombing came up for discussion. Even leaving aside the speculation that
the US might have penetrated the Pakistan intelligence establishment,
and that the confusion over the incident is the product of divisions
within it, it is plain that the Americans don’t treat the Pakistanis as
equal partners.
This is fully in keeping with US practice even within its close alliance
system, NATO. Washington has never accepted the idea that there should
be “two fingers on the trigger” — its own, and its ally’s.
Unilateralism is built into the way the Pentagon conceives and conducts
itself. It becomes even more virulent when the US deals with minor or
less important allies like Pakistan — never mind the glorified
ascription, “Major Non-NATO Ally.”
The Bajaur bombing had a precedent in overt and covert actions in South
Waziristan in 2004-05. Bajaur will, in turn, set a precedent for future
overt actions by the US in other Agency areas, or for that matter,
covert activities in Balochistan, the NWFP and Afghanistan too. All
assurances by Washington that it respects Pakistan’s sovereignty and
will consult it in the future, which Aziz and President Pervez Musharraf
repeatedly cite, mean nothing. The only issue is whether the government
will be able to pacify the widespread resentment in Pakistan at US
heavy-handedness.
India’s experience with the July 18 ’nuclear cooperation’ deal with
Washington (variously described by its supporters as a ’coup’,
’breakthrough’ and a ’gift horse’) has been equally unpleasant.
The agreement, which makes a one-time exception in the global nuclear
order for India, demands that India ’voluntarily’ separate its military
nuclear facilities from civilian ones, and place the latter under
International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards in a ’phased manner.’ But
at the end of the third round of talks on fleshing out the agreement, it
turns out that the separation is anything but ’voluntary’ or determined
solely by India.
Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, who represented the US in the
January 19-20 negotiations in New Delhi, apparently told India that it
would have to seriously revise the list of civilian facilities if it is
to be ’credible’ and acceptable to the US Congress, which must ratify
the July agreement.
According to reports, there are three stumbling-blocks. First, India
wants all ’research and development’ programmes exempted from
safeguards. The most important of these is fast-breeders, special
reactors which use fission caused by ’fast neutrons’ and, theoretically,
generate more fissile material than they consume. The US insists that
these be put on the civilian list and safeguarded.
Second, India would also like two civilian reactors at the Madras Atomic
Power Station (MAPS), built in the 1980s, to be exempted from IAEA
inspections. The Department of Atomic Energy’s (DAE) rationale is
apparently that they would act as an additional source of unsafeguarded
plutonium in a future contingency. It’s also possible that the MAPS
complex houses are testing facilities for the nuclear propulsion reactor
which India is developing for its nuclear submarine project. The DAE
wouldn’t like any foreign inspectors near that ’sensitive’ facility. The
US says no to exempting MAPS.
Third, India would also like to keep CIRUS out of the civilian list, a
small reactor built with Canadian and US help in 1960, which produces
weapons-grade plutonium. CIRUS was the source of the plutonium used in
India’s 1974 ’peaceful’ explosion. It has since been used to produce
more fuel for nuclear weapons. India’s case is weakest on CIRUS because
it was officially designated for ’peaceful purposes’ under bilateral
agreements which India signed in the 1950s with the US and Canada.
Unless these are rescinded, it would be illogical and illegal to exclude
CIRUS from the civilian list.
To keep CIRUS in the list, India will demand the ’freedom’ to build a
larger plutonium producer, dubiously citing ’economies of sale’. It
might give up the MAPS demand. But the fast-breeder issue will pose a
big problem.
India has made such a mystique out of breeders — and the idea of using
them at a later stage to burn thorium, of which India has plenty — that
it will find it hard to retreat. India currently has one small
operational fast ’test’ reactor and is building a ’prototype’ 500 MW
reactor. But using thorium as fuel in nuclear-fission reactors is not a
commercial technology; it’s only a theoretical possibility. India may
become a prisoner of its own illusion.
Illusions apart, the current negotiations show that India’s assessment
of the nuclear deal’s implications was unrealistic, even rosy. It really
thought this was an equal, reciprocal symmetrical deal, in which India
would have ’the same responsibilities’ and ’the same benefits and
advantages’ as the five NPT-recognised nuclear states.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told parliament on August 3 that the
civilian-military separation would not be imposed but would be ’decided
voluntarily and solely on our own judgment.’ The identification ’will be
so phased that our strategic programme is safeguarded.’
DAE secretary Anil Kakodkar also clarified that "the determination of
what is going to be identified as a civilian nuclear facility is going
to be an Indian decision... taken at appropriate points of time... [I]n
identifying civilian nuclear facilities, we have to determine that they
were of no national security significance. We will do so this in a
phased manner. It is not a one-time determination."
But it’s amply clear that even identification, leave alone actual
separation and safeguarding, won’t be done in a ’phased manner.’ That’s
not how the Americans want it.
The deal is unlikely to be finalised before Bush’s visit. It may even
fall through, unless India caves in to pressure and follows the American
script. So much for ’reciprocity’ and ’equality.’