"The Ampatuans
have been known
to be Arroyo’s
warlords and
therefore could
not be genuinely
identified as rebels
otherwise this
move will again
end up on Arroyo’s
doorsteps."

 The Quid Pro Quo

The private army and the enormous
wealth of the Ampatuans have been
arrogantly displayed for the entire
world to see since they have had a
quid pro quo relationship with the
Arroyo regime. That is the Ampatuans
can have the sky as the limit for
their wealth and power as long as
they can help the Arroyo to stay in
power.

The brigade size Civilian Armed
Forces Geographical Unit (CAFGU),
the more than battalion size Special
Civilian Auxiliary Army (SCAA) and
Civilian Volunteers Organization
(CVO), were all trained by the Armed
Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and
the Philippine National Police (PNP)
respectively. They are armed with
weapons far sophisticated and high
powered than AFP and PNP combined
armaments but everybody
knows even the higher ups
of the trainors that these
units have been treated by
the Ampatuans as their
private armies and personal
security units whose
main tasks were not only
to protect the whole clan
but also to secure and
guard the twenty eight (28)
mansions with built-in
money vaults in them.
These scandalously big and
very expensive mansions
worth billions of pesos are
located throughout the
country. In some of these places, they
are built in the midst of peoples’ shanties
as if wanting to present a contrast
of heaven and earth or hell depending
on one’s perspective.

One month ago, such situation
seemed untouchable and nobody
dared to even try to rock such arrangement.
Everybody has known that
there is a direct connection of the
Ampatuans and Malacañang. The miraculous
victory of Mrs Arroyo over
the Muslims’ idol Fernando Poe Jr in
2004 Presidential Elections providing
Commission on Election Commissioner
Garcilliano a secured hiding
place during the Hello Garci Scandal
and the mysterious 12-0 victory of Mrs
Arroyo senatorial slate in the province
in 2007 elections have been, too glaring
to ignore such symbiotic relationship.

 The November 23: Quo Vadis?

After the November 23, 2009 infamous
Maguindanao Massacre where fifty
seven (57) people majority of whom
are journalists and lawyers and supporters
of a rival clan were brutally
murdered and mutilated, the picture
which was painted above seemed to
turn upside down.

The whole nation and the world have
reacted to the gruesome and very inhuman
acts of killing the 57 people on
the road to file and witness a democratic
exercise thru filing of Candidacy
to the provincial Commission on Election
(COMELEC) office. Everybody
believes that act could
only be done by monsters
and all signs and footprints
have sharply
pointed to the Ampatuans.

Mrs. Arroyo and Malacañang
were put on the
spot. They know that
they have created these
monsters and their inaction
(as in the past creating
an atmosphere of impunity)
would surely point
back to their direction
and the world especially the country
could not forgiven them. Damage control
measures like expulsion of the clan
from the Ruling Party and arresting or
“inviting” one of the monsters would
perhaps reassures and lessens the anger
of the people. Aside from reassuring
the people, Malacañang would want
to show that it does not tolerate such
act. The main reason for the damage
control measure is to buy time and lay
down the foundation of creating an
impression of the distancing Mrs. Arroyo
from the Ampatuans at the same
time thinking of ways to save the Ampatuans
and hence saving Mrs Arroyo
from possible revelation of the Ampatuans’
aces against her.

 Martial Law a Solution to Maguindanao Massacre or an Exit Plan?

The declaration of Martial Law in Maguindanao
is the best option because it will
have reason to arrest and isolate the Ampatuans
and to make sure that they can
not speak against Arroyo. The Arroyo
regime can launch search and seizure activities
against the Ampatuan in the guise
of looking for guns and military hardware
it had provided or sold in the past but
actually it is looking and securing the 2004
and 2007 electoral evidences against Arroyo
and the Ruling Party.

The problem is: the constitutional justifications
of Martial Law, which are invasion
and rebellion, are not present in Maguindanao.
Ampatuan Jr. had tried to implicate
the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and
nobody believed him. The Ampatuans have
been known to be Arroyo’s warlords and
therefore could not be genuinely identified
as rebels otherwise this move will again
end up on Arroyo’s doorsteps.

The constitution says the President has to
report to a joint session of Congress 48
hours after the declaration of Martial Law.
The Congress with a simple majority vote
can revoke the declaration of Martial Law.
Again this gives Mrs. Arroyo a breathing
space – the Congress especially its lower
house will unashamedly give Mrs. Arroyo
their approval for Maguindanao Martial
Law and then they can have their pork
barrels which have been withheld up to
the present.

The problem of the Arroyos’ allies
in the lower house is that they
have to make the decision to support
her which means making the
unpopular position not good with
the elections of 2010 coming.

Furthermore Maguindanao is a
known stronghold of the MILF and
they have been waging rebellion
for decades and peace talks have
just restarted. This explains the
words “except for some places in
Maguindanao” Martial Law is effected.

And to put more salt to the
wounds of the Ampatuans, the
Commission on Audit (COA) has
finally seen that the wealth,
money in vaults, fleet of luxurious
cars and more than two dozens
mansions do not correspond to
the income of the clan most of
whom are politicians. But actually
the findings will be used later
against the clan if they insist on
divulging what they know about
Mrs. Arroyo and the Ruling Party
in 2004 and 2007 elections respectively.

 The November 23 and May 2010 and Beyond

Have all the above mentioned
points led to the declaration of
Martial Law in Maguindanao? Not
so. The gruesome November 23
Massacre was a disaster waiting
to happen. Mrs. Arroyo has created
the monsters and the monsters
have known no limit to
crimes they can commit. They
have been doing this kind of
crime in the past and the only
difference was that they were
done to smaller number of people
and less known entities. The
disaster might be for us and
maybe for the monsters but as
the trend now says it can be another
opportunity to answer another
question for Mrs. Arroyo –
her exit plan.

With Congress secured
in her pockets and the Departments
of Justice, National
Defense and Interior and Local
government they can create
situation similar to November 23
event in other parts of the country.
And the Arroyo regime can
depend on people like Teddy
Locsin the divided CBCP/Church
and Bankers to justify its Martial
Law as the last resort or whatever.
And at the end of the day,
many of us have been made to
believe that she is running for
Congress in the Second District
of Pampanga. And looking into
the eyes of Secretaries Puno,
Gonzales and Devenadera one
can say that Mrs. Arroyo and
themselves have more years to
stay put in their respective positions.
Only that they are more
powerful than before.

Martial
Law in Maguindanao is indeed an
answer to another question. And
by the time many of us will know
the answer, Mrs. Arroyo changes
the question. Or lift up the Martial
Law in Maguindanao only to
declare it again in other vote-rich
province in the country. What
matters most is that it has set
the historical precedence.

Photo: Members of the Young Advocates for Peace
and Solidarity (YAPS) in Cotabato City joined
in a vigil protest to call for Justice to the victims
of the November 23 massacre and against
the Martial Law in Maguindanao.

By Richard Solis, IIRE-Manila, December 11, 2009