The violence in Dili is hardly an industrial dispute, nor spontaneous
ethnic violence. Timor Leste’s Prime Minister, Mari Alkatiri, says the
armed attacks are part of an attempted coup, and follow a history of
destabilisation attempts. It is likely he knows better than the
Australian pundits, who have been speaking simply of “east west”
rivalry, and an “immature” nation, unready for independence.
Such caricatures of the country and the government are misleading and
dangerous. There has been destabilisation of the legitimate Fretilin
government, ever since independence, and the Howard government has
played a part. An important question now is: how much of a part?
A fairly high level of organisation, and confidence, can be seen both in
the mobilisation of weapons and the international appeals from the army
defectors. Heavy weapons were taken, and renegade leader Alfredo Reinado
(who joined Gastao Salsinha, leader of the sacked soldiers) says he
welcomes the arrival Australian troops, and wants to “have a VB” with
the aussies.
Such familiarity from a person engaged in murder and mutiny is
disturbing. And instead of calling Reinado and his followers “criminals”
or “terrorists”, John Howard has turned on the Alkatiri Government. As
the troops roll in Howard says ?The country has not been well governed
.. the real challenge "is to get a government that has the confidence of
the local people".
Coup plotters rarely act without assurances of outside support, or at
the least post-coup recognition. A US guarantee of regime recognition
was central to the Chilean coup of 1973, and the abortive 2002 coup in
Venezuela. More recently in Haiti, even though the US had no credible
alternative candidate, they fomented violence to remove a popular
leftist leader.
Media backing is essential for a coup. Paul Kelly from The Australian
(which has waged a long campaign against the Fretilin government)
questions whether the democratically elected PM of the country "has a
long-term role here as part of the solution". Some diplomats are
reported as saying that the resignation of Alkatiri "may convince the
warring gangs to lay down their arms".
On this argument, PM Alkatiri only “survived” the recent Fretilin
elections, where he faced a possible challenge from a Washington-based
diplomat. In fact, Alkatiri won more than 90% support in the party vote,
and Fretilin retains almost 60% support across the country .
While the internal rivalry between Prime Minister Alkatiri and President
Xanana Gusmao has received a lot of attention, less has been said about
international tensions and destabilisation, which has followed several
disputes.
The dispute over oil and gas is well known. Mari Alkatiri had the
support of all parties in driving a hard line with the Howard
government. Many believe the Timorese were still robbed by a deal Howard
continues to call ?generous?.
Less well known are the disputes over agriculture, where Australia and
the World Bank refused to help rehabilitate and build the Timorese rice
industry, and refused to support use of aid money for grain silos. Under
Alkatiri, the Timorese have reduced their rice import-dependence from
two-thirds to one-third of domestic consumption.
After independence an expensive phone service run by Telstra was
replaced by a government joint venture with a Portuguese company. And
following a popular campaign, Timor Leste remains one of the few "debt
free" poor countries. Alkatiri’s consideration here, as economic
manager, was to retain some control over the country’s budget, and the
building of public institutions.
In 2005 there was a Church led dispute over the apparent relegation of
religious education to “voluntary” status in schools. The dispute was
resolved, but not before it had become the focus of an open campaign to
remove Alkatiri, who was branded a “communist”. During this dispute some
East Timorese were alarmed to see that the US Embassy (and possibly also
the Australians) providing material support (such as portable toilets)
to the demonstrators, effectively backing an opposition movement.
Over 2004-06 the Alkatiri government secured the services dozens of
Cuban doctors, and several hundred young Timorese students are now in
Cuba, studying medicine free of charge. No one criticises this valuable
assistance, but the US does all it can to undermine Cuban policy.
It is worth remembering that the suggested “communist” politics of
Fretilin in 1975 was a major reason for US support for the Indonesian
invasion and occupation. Australia followed suit. Today the “communist”
tag is again used by Reinado to target the Fretilin government.
Reinado rejects government orders, but has allied himself to Xanana and
Jose Ramos Horta, the two non-Fretilin members of the government. (Ramos
Horta is known to be close to the Bush administration.) It is not clear
yet to what extent Xanana and Ramos Horta have links to Reinado.
Alkatiri has not, contrary to media reports, accused the President of
complicity. Yet the coup attempt proceeds in Xanana’s name.
The current situation is complicated by the arming of civilian groups on
both sides of the coup plot, and the fact that troops from several
countries have been invited. Of these, the Portuguese seem to maintain
strongest support for the Timorese government, while the Australians
seem to be apologising for the plotters.
A possible “junta” to be installed by Australian intervention (already
hinted at by Kirsty Sword Gusmao) could include nominees of the Catholic
bishops, Ramos Horta and an ailing Xanana (ill with kidney disease). The
forced removal of Mari Alkatiri, his ministers and army chief Taur Matan
Ruak, and the presence of occupying troops till next year’s election
might seriously undermine Fretilin?s dominant position. But then again,
the coup might fail.
Occupying armies are bad news for democracy. The Australian government
comes to its most recent intervention in Timor Leste literally “blooded”
from its spectacularly unsuccessful interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq
and the Solomons.
The current intervention may be necessary, if it has been legitimately
called for by the East Timorese government; but it is also a great
danger for the country’s democracy. Australian people, who strongly
supported independence for the people of Timor Leste, should watch
Howard’s latest intervention very closely.