On eighth October, North Korea test exploded a nuclear device. From
now on North Korea is to be treated as a nuclear capable power. It is
a portentous development in Asian politics. Asia was already
experiencing barely hidden inter-se hostile diplomacy by great
powers, led by the US and emergent China. This looks likely to become
more hostile and frenetic. For, the way Americans are likely to
encourage Japan to militarise, China will be alienated. It needs
being said that Asian peoples will not be involved; the struggle is
among great military powers for the control and domination of Asia’s
vast resources.
Japan claims to be the most threatened by the military capabilities
of North Korea - an area that had been in Japanese occupation until
the Second World War and where anti-Japanese sentiment is alive. The
threat inherent in this post explosion situation is likely to be
perceived differently by different countries. For the US, it
punctures its vast prestige and influence; it will no longer be able
to do just about anything; the deterrent power it had stands degraded
somewhat. China’s regret and disapproval, though genuine, is more for
the record. Even Pakistan and India have made their disapproval
known, though it is a sin that they had themselves committed only 8
years ago.
South Korea’s official establishment is formally among those who feel
to be in danger from North Korea’s nuclear capability, though this
alienation from North Korea is far less among the people in the
South, who appear to set more store on pan-Korean Nationalism. No one
else in Asia, except anti-nuclear campaigners, will feel threatened
by North Korea’s Bomb. After all, North Korea is a small country that
is not inimical to most Asian countries. All its militancy is
directed at Japan that had mistreated it so badly in the past that
its scars are still visible. It has not forgotten the war in 1950s
the US led against it for purely cold war reasons. It is friendly to
Russia and China for historical reasons; they had also come to its
aid in 1950s.
What threat most Asians will feel is the Japanese reaction to it -
and to a smaller extent South Korea’s. These two powers might opt for
building their own atomic weapons. South Korea’s behaviour in atomic
research had raised the hackles of IAEA experts at one stage. But the
matter was somehow resolved, even if it was not hushed up. North
Korea having gone nuclear, the common people in the South are not
likely to become too anti-DPRK. But all that will assume a different
aspect if Japan is persuaded to change its peace constitution - that
outlaws war for Japan - and become an atomic power. Then, the people
of the South - who share the anti-Japanese sentiment with their
Northern brethren may more easily acquiesce in South Korea’s own
Bomb. Proliferation is inherent in the situation anyhow.
One thing can be said about Japanese reaction to North Korean Bomb. A
certain amount of commonsense and a sense of proportion needs to be
deployed: North Korea is no real threat to Japan. Japan is in fact a
great military power as it is; it spends each year over $ 40 billion
on defence. It is nearly equal to what India and Pakistan spend on
defence together. True, it does not have nuclear weapons. But in most
other departments it should be treated as a great military power. And
making atomic weapons will require only political decision and a few
months. Can North Korea mount an invasion of Japan? no matter how
many nuclear weapons it can manage to fabricate? The very idea of it
is ridiculous. North Koreans’ perceived threats to their own security
should explain its behaviour; it has reasons to fear the US-Japan
military alliance. It is still formally in a state of war with the US.
As soon as there is the prospect of Japan going nuclear becomes
closer, there will be real turmoil throughout Asia. Japan’s conduct
in the 20th Century, beginning with defeating Imperial Russia and
occupying Korean areas and going on to invade China are a painful
memory for most Asians. It occupied nearly all of Southeast Asia
during Second World War and it was knocking at the doors of India. No
Asian has forgotten that experience. Japan’s going nuclear will be a
cat among pigeons. Strongest reaction will that be from China, though
other Southeast Asians’ fright ought not to be forgotten. Japanese
Bomb will broadly recreate the later 1930s’ Asia.
Who can forget the US has already an alliance - a series of
inter-connecting treaties with Australasian and Asian powers - that
spans from South Korea through Japan, Taiwan to Australia and several
other arrangements with South East Asian countries and has the effect
of a military alignment that only needs an enemy after the Soviets
died and China became a semi capitalist country. But this grand line
up exists. India can be said to be a part of US power system; Indians
and Americans are jointly patrolling the Straits of Malacca already.
Pakistan also qualifies for this honour but for its greater relevance
to Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics - and also perhaps its
close relations with China take away something from its
pro-Americanness.
In this context, the moralistic deprecation of nuclear proliferation
by those who not only have nuclear weapons but greatly benefit from
the importance and influence these weapons yield is disgusting. All
major powers today are nuclear capable (except Japan) but want to
limit the spreading of such weapons to others. There is a lot of
self-serving moralistic rhetoric against proliferation that actually
aims to preserve their monopoly or semi-monopoly now. It does not
behove India, Pakistan or Israel to preach abstinence to others after
committing this cardinal sin themselves. If nuclear weapons are bad
for humanity, let them be outlawed in toto; why limit them to the P5
and any other gate crasher?
The fact cannot be ignored that possession of nuclear weapons is
thought to be a sufficient deterrent to being aggressed against.
North Korea will perhaps feel safe against an American-led invasion
by threatening to nuke American troops in South Korea or in Japan.
Well, that is the accepted wisdom, though it may not apply in every
situation - as it scarcely does in the case of Indo-Pakistan
standoff. But so long as great powers gain benefits by virtue of
being nuclear capable, there will be strong temptation by all
threatened states to go nuclear. That is how the nuclear club
strength stands at nine.
Proliferation is aided by reason. International relations are not
based on sweet reasonableness or morality or international law. What
counts is military (especial also nukes’) power. The stronger you are
you get better terms. The US has shown, more clearly after the
disappearance of the Soviets, that you can dominate the whole world
by virtue of possessing overwhelming military power, based on nukes
and the panapoly of scientific and technological means of keeping
everyone under surveillance. All your economic shortcomings can be
rectified if you have the power to impose upon weaker states with
resources.
Few can expect the ninth entry into this exclusive club to be the
last. The way the world works also shows how to become powerful and
get your way in your own neighbourhood by possessing atomic weapons
and the means of delivering them. It is sad. If a change from this
sordid power politics is desired, the thing to do is to outlaw
nuclear weapons and keep them outlawed by force of public opinion.