Last week this column ended with the statement
that there was a lot to be learnt and
unlearnt in 2007. The new year is now with us and
with it the unfolding of an endgame.
As to who will be left standing and how and as to
how long it will take remains to be
seen. The point about the learning and unlearning remains, however.
Last year saw an escalation of violence resulting
in civilian misery through death,
displacement and abduction that put us down there
in the catalogue of human suffering
with Darfur, Palestine and Lebanon. Presidential
commissions, international eminent
persons, food consignments from Colombo and
Chennai, pseudo °©patriotic vitriol and
diatribes against the Norwegian facilitators, the
SLMM, Ambassador Alan Rock, NGOs
and INGOs cannot erase or obscure this fact. The
war began and with little regard for
human rights and basic humanitarian norms. And on
the evidence of the indiscriminate
bombing and cowardly bus bombs, the horrendous
human shield and siege tactics in
Vaharai, it will continue in this vein, until and
unless victory is won by one side or the
other.
This needs unpicking.
It is now on record that the strategy of the GOSL
is to clear' the east of the LTTE and
then move on to do likewise in the rest of the
territory under complete or partial LTTE
control. Nothing it would seem will stand in the
government's way short of international
intervention or military defeat °© both
eventualities being subject to varying degrees of
improbability at present. Talk of little herds of
elephants crossing over and thereby
obviating the need for another general election
notwithstanding, it is also highly probable
that were the government to succeed in
clearing’
the LTTE from the east °© it is highly
likely that a considerably weakened LTTE will
effect a strategic withdrawal to avoid
defeat°© a provincial election there and a
general election in the country will surely
follow. A likely victory for the government in
this electoral contest will in turn obviate
the need for dependence on the JVP and/ or the
UNP °© two parties it does not trust - for a
secure majority in parliament. And trust him or
not, Colonel Karuna will triumph at the
provincial level.
The government will then be riding high or more
likely, it will ride high for a while,
numbered perhaps in months, before guerilla
attacks against its defending forces
commence and the costs of military victory are
fully registered on the cost of living.
Defence estimates stand at approximately Rs 140
billion and climbing. The government’s
proposals for a political settlement, which we
are told will be ready in two months, may
not be the subject of negotiation on this
reckoning, for two years or more °© that is of
course if the two month deadline is to be met in
the first instance. It is highly unlikely
that the LTTE will come to the negotiating table,
sans a politico-military presence in the
east and with their pretension of sole
representation of the Tamils of the north and
east, demonstrably and conclusively busted.
The war will go on or as it is characterized in
the jargon °© a period of protracted conflict
will ensue. Or more accurately, the period of
protracted conflict will continue as it has
for three decades with the brief exception of the early days of the CFA.
Of course this may well be totally off the mark,
the wishful thinking of an LTTE
apologist and traitor as this columnist is
frequently labeled by our mala fide patriots. The
unremitting rationale and relentless logic of the
current government strategy is, has to be,
must and will be, total victory. The LTTE will be
cleared' from the east, given no
respite and therefore
cleared’ from the north as
well. It would be fatal to give them a
break; they will be reeling and it will be time
to go for the kill. Besides, would it be fair
to allow only Colonel Karuna to inherit in the
east and not Minister Devananda in the
north ?
The Rajapakse government has to think long and
hard about this. Whatever it may say,
the logic and rationale of what is has embarked
upon is that of war unto victory. It is a
huge risk taken at even greater cost. It is a
trap. In the first instance, can Colonel Karuna
be trusted ? What will he do if he is and just as
pertinent and probably more dangerous,
what will he do if and when he finds out that he is not ?
We have gone back to the future. As demonstrated
on the battlefield and by the logic of
the military strategy adopted, we are back to the
dominant position of "there being no
ethnic conflict“but rather a”terrorist
problem". Majoritarianism is at the heart of this
government with the JHU ensconced as its high
priests. This government gives greater
priority to defeating the LTTE in the east than
to designing its proposals for a political
settlement of the conflict. The clearest,
unambiguous statement of the government’s
strategy for conflict transformation is surely
that of the Army commander with regard to
the defeat of the LTTE in the east and elsewhere. And the manner in which the government conducts the war, confirms that
through siege and ceaseless bombardment
and the sustenance of a climate of impunity, it
seeks to depopulate the north and east to
effect demographic change and thereby consolidate
majoritarian political hegemony.
The LTTE are perversely complicit in this.
Imprisoned in their comfort zone of violence
they have banked on civilian suffering and misery
to be the catalyst for international
intervention to their advantage. This is a
measure of their limited and limiting
understanding of the international community and
international power politics. It may
now be too late for their supporters and
sympathizers who condone their every error and
attempt to obfuscate their every atrocity, to
convey to them that the enormous sacrifice of
lives and livelihoods they have demanded from the
Tamil people is in danger of also
becoming synonymous with the sacrifice of the
political rights and aspirations of a
people. The LTTE too is in a trap, largely of its
own making. Given the government’s
stated objective, they have no option but to
resist, to ensure that they are not defeated but
live to fight another, more propitious day. This
will mean unconventional warfare and
the widening of the theatre of war through acts
of terrorism in response to the bombing
campaign in the north and east.
In the meantime, in camp, bus or hospital,
civilians will be killed, maimed and starved.
Set a thief to catch a thief; terror to combat terror....
Can national security and liberation be so miserable ?