Taiwan’s wild electoral process is set to become even more tumultuous, with five candidates already declared for president a year in advance of next March’s polls and corruption charges swirling around both major political parties.

President Chen Shui-bian, who took office in 2000 as a reform antidote to the scandal-plagued Kuomintang, faces charges of his own and considerable pressure to shore up support for his ruling Democratic Progressive Party. So far his response has been more calls for Taiwanese independence from China.

On March 24, three of the four DPP candidates held a televised debate, two days after Ma Ying-jeou of the opposition Kuomintang party launched a national club to support his campaign. A two-way DPP-KMT battle would be the simplest race, but any of the major candidates could decide to run on his or her own, if rejected by their party, which would split votes.

Certainly, after half a century of KMT political dominance ended with Chen’s election in 2000, Taiwan has taken to electoral politics with a gratifying bang. Politics here increasingly resemble those in the United States, with an extended election campaign, an intrusive media and an emphasis on personality over platforms. The ferocity of the political environment and an aggressive media mean that all the candidates are vulnerable to exposure for financial scandals or keeping a mistress.

The political debate has far overshadowed concerns over Taiwan’s economy, with export growth slowing to 7.6 percent annually for the first two months of 2006, well below its September 2006 peak.

Economists predict GDP growth could slow to below 4 percent this year. Taiwan’s GDP growth in 2006 was driven mostly by exports, with domestic demand lacklustre, at best. Concerns are growing about a hollowing out of industrial production as it moves to China. Intel’s recent announcement to spend US$2.5 billion on a chip plant in Dalian made front-page news in Taiwan’s papers, with articles analysing the impact on Taiwanese semiconductor producers, sparking unease about competition from factories in China.

Every night, cable channels run long discussion programs that debate political issues with fire and energy in Mandarin, Taiwanese, Hakka and aboriginal languages. Few countries in the world are so politicized. Ask a taxi driver who he will vote for next March and you will hear a 20-minute discourse.

Ma, until late last year the hands-down favorite to become president, had to resign his post as chairman of the KMT after he became one of many candidates on both sides of the aisle – including President Chen’s wife – to be charged with misuse of a political slush fund. If found guilty, he would be unable to stand. The prosecutor could bring similar charges against other candidates.

Another unknown is Beijing, which is increasingly frustrated with Chen and his promise to change the constitution. While no one expects military action before the Beijing Olympics in August 2008, less drastic acts of hostility are not out of the question.

The rivalry between Taiwan’s two parties is increasingly bitter. The DPP wants to de-sinicize Taiwan and is changing the names of national institutions to reflect this. It is removing statues of former President Chiang Kai-shek, whom it regards as a dictator responsible for the deaths of thousands of Taiwanese, and reassembling them in a park in Taoyuan, southwest of Taipei.

For the Kuomintang, the economic miracle, high education levels and the security of Taiwan since 1949 are inseparable from Chiang and his legacy and removing the statues is to deny history and insult those who revere him.

This bitterness translates into a deadlock on many issues – the DPP controls the executive branch and the Kuomintang controls Parliament. And after two terms in office, Chen cannot stand again.

Meanwhile, the leading figures of the DPP, whom the media calls ‘the four big kings’, have all declared their candidacy.

They are Vice-President Annette Lu, Prime Minister Su Tseng-chang, former Prime Minister Frank Hsieh and party chairman Yu Shyi-kun. The latter three took part in Saturday’s debate, which Chen also attended for the full three hours.

In the most controversial promise, Yu said that, as president, he would not be bound by Chen’s ‘four noes’ pledge in 2000. These were: as long as China did not use force against Taiwan, he would not declare independence, hold referenda on the nation’s statehood, seek constitutional changes or change national symbols.

Such a move would raise tensions with Beijing to a new level and further antagonize relations with Washington, Taiwan’s most important ally. Yu’s promise provoked anger from the other side.

The Kuomintang promise a gradual liberalization of trade and economic policy toward China. “If we do not do this, Taiwan will become increasingly marginalized from the international order, which is a very serious matter,” said Wang Jin-ping, the speaker of the legislature and Ma’s likely opponent, on March 24.

For its part, the DPP denies it has blocked investment to China, saying that 70 percent of Taiwan’s foreign direct investment last year went to the mainland.

“We do not want to lock all our investments in China,” Su said in a speech in Taipei on March 22 to foreign investors. “It is necessary for national security reasons to carry out proper risk management. We must maintain Taiwan’s leadership in key industries such as semi-conductors and absolutely must keep sensitive technology in our grasp.”