Tactical Situation Ensuing From the Last Elections
The last elections manifested the extreme bankruptcy of the reactionary ruling political system and the acceleration of the GMA regime’s isolation and rejection by the people.
The elections proved as another showcase of fraud and violence as political clans battle it out among themselves. It showed a new height in political clans’ rivalries. It confirmed a fundamental feature of Philippine reactionary politics, which is decided on and based upon local politics. Another feature is the COMELEC confirming once again that it is in charge of systematic cheating for the GMA regime and for others who are able to pay. But the recent elections manifested a particular development in the people’s consciousness, which resulted from the “Hello Garci” scandal that remains a notorious controversy.
Many voters did not vote and others were unable to. There was failure of elections in several municipalities. But the COMELEC immediately declared that more than 80% of registered voters voted but the fact is, only a little over 50% of registered voters went to polls. It is already 2 months since May 14 but the canvassing is not yet completed. Such is expected of the electoral system and COMELEC, which also acts as the center in charge of vote padding and shaving. Meanwhile vote buying and selling were observed as more rampant and the prices much higher indicating the intensity of the contest between local political patrons. While many of the electorate got involved in these dealings, it was also observed that more voters were now vigilant against these practices.
The case of Pampanga and to some extent Isabela, stand out in the local political scenes. In the former the people ensured their own candidate win against the candidates of the regime, a known gambling queen and the incumbent governor long exposed of corrupt practices. The victory of Fr. Ed Panlilio is also a clear rejection of GMA whose father is from Pampanga. But the intensity of the battle is continuing; the loser gambling queen is now after her former supporters and is posed to make it hard for the elected governor. The people in Pampanga are being primed to defend their victory.
In other areas were battles between political clans raged certain long-ruling dynasties were replaced by new political clans and personalities, though not the type of progressive politics. But in most areas where dynasties rule, old ones remained in power. These manifest the general character of reactionary elections in the Philippines, that is, the dominance of local political patrons.
Nevertheless the last elections generally displayed the people’s attitude towards the GMA regime. The results in the senatorial race overwhelmingly show the people’s protest and at most, rejection of the GMA regime. Whomever the people voted for local positions, in most areas they chose the opposition more than GMA regime’s candidates for the senate. The elections’ results in Makati, San Juan, Manila, Navotas and the whole of NCR and even in areas that the regime declared as its bailiwicks prove the people’s protest against the GMA regime.
The last elections became an arena where the people manifested their will against the GMA regime. It is not yet the end for the regime, but the last elections set forth the following trends in the tactical situation.
1. The GMA regime is further isolated and pushed into defensive position.
– The regime’s machinery for fraud worked but every attempt at cheating is immediately exposed. The machinery collapsed in the final run; only 2 TU senatoriables made it and high profile TU candidates conceded defeat. The COMELEC is imploding under the weight of its own commission of fraud and dubious snail pace canvassing of votes. Compared to 2004 elections, the people’s awareness and vigilance against fraud and violence are presently at their heights. The media, the Church, the Integrated Bar of the Philippines (IBP), active and retired officers and men of the AFP, the Makati Business Club, etc, have been extra-alert.
Several factors contribute to this heightening of anti-GMA consciousness and vigilance against fraud: the lingering issue of illegitimacy of the presidency that was further highlighted by the unresolved scandal of “Hello Garci” tapes; the early exposé by Bantay Boto, which is composed of retired AFP officers, about the Oplan Mercury Rising; GMA’s maneuvers to stay in power beyond 2010 as manifested in the Cha Cha scheme and by the repressive laws and decrees culminating to “emergency rule” last year and the anti-terror Human Security Act; the continuing extra-judicial killings and disappearances of activists; RVAT; the regime’s deceptions on “economic stability”, etc.
– Despite their inability to campaign and their meager funds, Trillanes and Honasan managed to land in the winning 12 candidates. This is the strongest indication of the people’s rejection of the GMA regime and their support especially for those who remain steadfast despite persecution. This also indicates that majority of enlisted men and young officers of the AFP voted and silently campaigned for them.
The peoples’ protest vote however does not mean that confidence in the electoral process has returned. In fact vigilance against fraud is very high. The people have turned the elections as arena to register their protest and rejection of the regime. Are the people ready for decisive battles to end the regime? The answer would depend on the state of contradictions between the regime and its political opponents; between pro and anti-GMA factions of the ruling classes; within the administration coalition; between the regime as representative of the ruling system and the people’s movement and its capability to grasp the situation and lead the masses of the people.
– The opposition would dominate the Senate though they failed to field enough candidates and win enough seats in the lower house to make-up the minimum number to pursue impeachment case against GMA. Nevertheless this failure of the opposition would not characterize the 14th Congress. The lower house would in fact remain ruled by the administration’s coalition. But this coalition is not the same as that in the 13th congress. Lakas-CMD won 92 seats and KAMPI, 48 seats. The dominant coalition of mainly the Lakas-CMD and KAMPI along with some members of NPC and LP rests on more unstable and rocky grounds. The Lakas-CMD versus KAMPI battles that raged in the last elections, particularly at the local level, were largely motivated by the ruling GMA faction’s objective to build KAMPI as the dominant political party. The lower house is now the arena of the continuing struggle between Lakas-CMD and KAMPI.
The immediate issue is the speakership of the House. What seemed as a compromise offer from KAMPI, supposedly recognizing and ensuring Jose De Venecia as the Speaker, is now exposed as a sign of intra-party contradictions. Even before it officially opens, the lower house is wrecked by a raging battle for speakership. While it is possible for JDV to regain the position, it would mean realignments among members of Congress. Another issue that could wreck the regime’s coalition is the Sandigan Bayan decision on the “24% government share in San Miguel Corp.
The attempt at building KAMPI as the dominant political party failed and is now boomeranging against the regime, the administration coalition and KAMPI itself. KAMPI is now cracked by intra-party conflict on the question of house speaker and the leadership of the party itself. Should there be new concessions from the regime would nevertheless have very temporary calming effects. Everyone is looking forward to 2010. The replacement of GMA and her regime is the focus of every political party in the next 3 years.
– Technically and politically GMA is a lame-duck president. The defeat of TU, the debacle that KAMPI is facing and the disarray of the administration coalition, and the impending failure of cha-cha via PI or Con Ass are making it harder and costlier for GMA to push her agenda through the established processes. Her remaining 3 years is expected to be payback time to those who supported her bid in 2004, build a good legacy she would leave behind or fight tooth and nail to defend her presidency and possibly to extend her regime. Cha-cha has to be pursued if only to get off the lame-duck status of president GMA.
– Indications tell that she is going to fight it out more than leaving a “good” legacy. The past 3 years (2004-2007) was a period of intense struggle to defend her illegitimate rule against the people and anti-GMA factions of the ruling class. The ruling GMA faction survived but the results of the 2007 mid-term elections say that the defensive battle of GMA shall go-on. In spite of these and because of these the regime is bent to push Charter Change (Cha Cha). Sigaw ng Bayan and ULAP have already announced the renewed efforts for people’s initiative Jose De Venecia has once again declared the intention that Cha Cha would be pursued. But the cha cha scheme would face new obstacles.
– The regime is also faced with urgent matters. It needs the support and compromise of the legislature, particularly the Senate for the sell-out of national sovereignty and patrimony and the suppression of the Filipino people’s national and democratic rights and interests. The regime is now more empowered with the passage of the Human Security Act but it would need more to get done, among others, the Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA) and the multiple agreements with China ratified and implemented, the Build-Operate Transfer law (BOT law) amended and the CARP extended.
2. To stay in power the GMA regime is relying more on the AFP, PNP and systematic repression which is now consolidated as the Human Security Act.
– The GMA regime’s reliance on the military, the police and systematic repression to prop-up its rule has led into a situation wherein the military blatantly resists civilian authority and the rule of law. The continuing series of extra-judicial killings and disappearances of political activists and mass leaders are mainly attributed to the military and the intelligence community. Another development, which never took place even under the Marcos dictatorship, is the militarization of communities in the NCR. Alongside these were the forcible removals by Malacanan of elected officials without due process.
– The reactionary state, with the GMA regime at the center, has become openly violent and terrorist and has shed any pretension for the rule of law. Despite cautions and demands from the international community for it to protect the people’s civil and democratic rights; extra-judicial killings, disappearances and harassments of political opponents of the regime are without let-up. The anti-terrorist law was slyly passed through a special joint-session called by Malacanan at the start of the senatorial campaigns. The Human Security Act (HSA) was actually a product of compromise by the Senate and pressure from Malacanan and condition from the US. The HSA arms the state with powers to attack and deny the people of their democratic and civil rights. The GMA regime, which pushed for this, will particularly use HSA to attack its opponents and to defend its rule, without declaring a “state of emergency” or “martial law”. The Human Security Act is effectively installing military rule and is vesting the illegitimate presidency of GMA with great powers.
– But to wield these powers the regime badly needs unified military and police forces. This is very uncertain for the regime. The victory of Antonio Trillanes as senator alone is already causing disquiet in the AFP. The AFP command has gone to the point of ascertaining the sentiments and attitude of the ranks and file towards this development. But the GMA regime and AFP command are still bent on keeping him (and the rest of Magdalo soldiers) in jail, an utter disregard of the judgment and mandate that the Filipino people have given Trillanes. The regime and the AFP command are in a “catch 22” situation with regards their case against Trillanes and the Magdalo. Whatever their stand would be will have implications on the charges against other military rebels.
3. The Supreme Court under the leadership of Chief Justice Reynato Puno promises to be a big obstacle for Malacanan.
– The new SC promises to be an obstacle to the regime’s schemes. The new SC is reacting to the regime’s lawless rule. It has declared that the HSA is a mindless counter-insurgency framework and ruled against the rebellion charge meted against 6 party list representatives. During “Independence Day” celebrations in Caloocan City, Reynato Puno stated, “extra-judicial killings are affront to the rule of law” and that the Filipino people are far from realizing freedom and democracy.
– The legal mettle of SC will be tested again when the HSA is formally challenged; when Sigaw ng Bayan and ULAP again pursue cha cha via people’s initiative (PI) and other legal questions that would be filed before it.
4. The GMA regime is adorning itself with illusions of financial and economic stability as it opens the country wider to foreign plunder.
– The GMA regime is harping on alleged financial and economic stability. But more than the implausible words and statistics of the regime is the fact the people do not experience any lowering in the cost of living nor increase in employment and wages. The regime is barefacedly claiming progress that is based on exporting Filipino labor and foreign loans while opening the country wider for foreigners to plunder. For the regime the indicators of the so-called “stability” are the strengthening of the peso against the dollar, increased activity in the stock market and increase in foreign investments in the Philippines. The alleged first quarter GNP growth rate of 6.9%. They all mean nothing to the people.
– The appreciation of the Philippine peso is due principally to the devaluation of the US Dollar and secondarily to the increase in gross international reserves (GIR) of the Philippines and not by GMA regime’s claims as consequence of its economic program. This phenomenon of appreciating currencies vis a vis the dollar is happening in other Asean countries. The Philippine peso has so far appreciated by 3.9%; the Thai baht by 4.4%; the Malaysian ringgit by 3.4% and Indonesian rupiah by 1.4%.
– But the real measure of value of any currency is its purchasing power, that is, the goods and services a unit of currency, e.g., 1 peso, can buy or pay for. The changing Peso-Dollar exchange rate is largely financial manipulation, an operation outside the pricing of commodities including services. In both processes price manipulation by monopoly banks, traders and industries/producers take place. The glaring examples are the pricing of oil products, of medicines and drugs, of food products or of services like electricity or water. The real gauge of the peso’s “strength” is how much or how many goods and services can every peso buy now compared, say, last year or last month. The clear reality is, prices of basic commodities are continuously increasing. In an economy like ours, which is import dependent, export oriented and foreign investment led, the beneficiaries from this artificial appreciation of the peso are the importers and foreign investors. They need fewer pesos to pay for every dollar worth of their merchandise, raw material or capital imports. The biggest irony is for producers and exporters of goods and most especially for millions of families of OFWs whose dollar earnings when converted into peso are decreasing.
– What is unique to the Philippine peso is, it is pegged or based on the US dollar. This means the economy of the country is dollarized and is therefore kept as import and debt dependent. The gross international reserves (GIR) stand as future payments of future imports and payments due maturing debts, especially short-term loans.
– The increase in GIR is brought by inflow of foreign exchange that is mainly dollars. The inflows take several forms but none of which is income or earning in export of goods or merchandise. The $25.8 billion GIR (BSP, June 8, 2007) is composed of debt papers (like Brady Bonds) bought back by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), new loans or proceeds from sale of sovereign bonds or debt papers, foreign investments and OFW remittances. Of these the remittances of OFW are earnings from export of living labor. Last year OFW remittances totaled $14 billion; from January to April 2007 these amounted to $4.7 billion. The GIR is mainly cover for import and debt payments or in other words, reserved dollars for to pay imports and debts that have matured. The present GIR is good for 4.8 months of importation.
– Brisk trading in stocks and other financial instruments is happening throughout Asian markets led by China’s stock exchanges. This indicates that there is huge financial bubble that is getting bigger in speculations in currencies and financial instruments. Because the Philippine financial system is liberalized and is further being liberalized, the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) is an open market where both foreign and local speculators deal. Foreign and local portfolio or hot money investments gain in the daily dealings. Based on BSP reports, in the first 5 months of 2007 total inflow of foreign portfolio investment amounted to $5.9 billion and total outflow was $4.23 billion leaving a net inflow of $1.67 billion. This is already more than 50% of the total last year. In 2006, total foreign portfolio inflow amounted to $9.190 billion and outflow was $6.189 billion leaving a net inflow of $3.001 billion. These figures state not only how big foreign speculative capitalists are profiting from the local financial and capital market but how they dominate it. Only about 200,000 people (foreigners and Filipinos) representing companies and themselves actively play the stock market (Business News Asia, Vol. 5, No. 5). They are getting richer through gambling on stocks. Their incomes from non-productive and non-physical economy bloat the values of their companies’ assets without any production or consumption taking place, just a series of buying and selling of financial instruments.
– Net foreign direct investments (FDI) in 2006 totaled $2.345 of which $1.287 billion were in equities; $-20 million in reinvested earnings and $1.078 billion in inter-company loans. In the distribution of foreign investments the biggest chunk of $678.06 million was unclassified; $230.71 million was in manufacture (mainly re-exports); $183.80 million in financial intermediaries (banks, security traders, etc.); $169.63 million in utilities – electricity, gas and water; $112.50 in real estate; only $26.54 million in mining; while there was an outflow of $113.62 million from services where the call centers and business process operations are categorized.
– The economic indicators which the regime is boasting about as progress are directed towards attracting foreign investors and convince the IMF-WB and the debt-risk analysts that the Philippines is in the position to pursue and maintain debt-payments and comply with new conditions. The GMA regime has opened the country wider to foreign plunder and is now bound to pursue new bilateral agreements that would surrender Philippine sovereignty and patrimony to Japan and China. The Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA) and the multiple agreements with China are urgent matters for the 14th Congress to act upon. Foreign investors are also demanding the amendment of the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Build-Operate-Transfer Law (BOT). The objective is to guarantee foreign control of communication and transportation infrastructures that are usually constructed under BOT scheme.
The Tasks Ahead for the People’s Movement
The people’s strong registry of protest in the last elections must be translated to material expressions in mass struggles that would advance the people’s demands and interests.
The GMA regime must be put into further defensive position and extreme isolation. The people must benefit from what it claims as financial and economic stability in order also to expose this illusion. Mass struggles that would demand the scrapping of EVAT law, legislated wage increase, a new but genuine agrarian reform program to replace CARP, etc must be pursued. Advance struggles that would assert and defend the people’s sovereignty over the national patrimony against foreign plunder. JPEPA and the RP-China multiple agreements must be foiled by the people. The BOT law must be scrapped.
The people must fight the Human Security Act, extra-judicial killings and disappearances and the lawless rule of the GMA regime. It is the right of the people to struggle for the downfall of a regime ruling on the basis of sheer force, systematic repression and utter deception.