Amit Baruah

Hello and welcome to this YouTube Live from The Wire. We’ll be discussing the parliamentary results from the Sri Lankan elections, which have given a massive mandate to the National People’s Power. Just two months after Anura Kumara Dissanayake was elected president, support for the NPP has been massive. With national list seats included, they have won 159 out of 225 seats - more than a two-thirds majority. People from across the island, including the north and east, have voted for the National People’s Party. This is especially significant in a country marked by ethnic divisions, where people in the north and east haven’t previously trusted national parties. This represents a major shift in Sri Lanka’s politics. During a rally on November 10^th in Jaffna, Mr. Dissanayake acknowledged they hadn’t done enough to win over Tamil voters. All that has changed, and people are now looking to see what the new government can do for citizens across the island - in the north, east, south, and west. 

Joining me to analyse the results are Ahilan Kadirgamar, senior lecturer of sociology at the University of Jaffna, a longtime observer of Sri Lankan politics who has been living in Jaffna since the Tamil Tigers insurgency ended, and Balasingham Skanthakumar, co-editor of Polity magazine, who lives in Colombo and closely follows developments in the country.

Amit Baruah

I’ll first turn to you, Ahilan, since you’re in Jaffna, and the results from there are quite surprising, even to those who believed the NPP would do well. Please explain to our viewers what this mandate means.

Ahilan Kadirgamar

This is a historic victory - the first time a national party has had such an overwhelming win in northern Sri Lanka. They won both electorates in the northern province, clearly showing a mandate for reconciliation and addressing long-standing grievances of the Tamil community. The people have placed significant faith in the NPP. When the President visited Jaffna, he specifically promised to address the issue of land taken over by the military and various government departments like archaeology and forestry. The first priority would be fulfilling that promise and releasing substantial amounts of land. But there are many other pending issues since the war’s end that the President and his party must address, including a political solution. There’s been an extensive debate in Sri Lanka, before and after the Indo-Lanka accord, about new forms of devolution and power sharing. The question now is whether the NPP, with their two-thirds majority needed for major constitutional changes, will have the political will to move in that direction.

Amit Baruah

Ahilan, before I turn to Kumar, I wanted to ask - did you see this as a wave, given the few votes [in the Tamil-speaking areas that] Anura Kumara Dissanayake received in the presidential elections? Is this tactical voting by people in the north and east, or something more?

Ahilan Kadirgamar

For 15 years since the war’s end, Tamil nationalist politics dominated the North. The LTTE created the Tamil National Alliance as a coalition, and after the LTTE’s defeat, they continued but weren’t organically connected to the people. They were individuals who carried on the LTTE’s legacy and slogans, with considerable diaspora support. They positioned themselves as intermediaries with the international community, including Delhi. Before or after every election, they’d go to New Delhi seeking blessings, claiming this would bring about a political settlement. This continued for some time, but there was a significant change after the presidential election. For that election, many of these same actors put forward a common candidate, knowing he wouldn’t win, but as a way to demonstrate Tamil unity and appeal to the international community. However, two things happened afterward: like the rest of the country, there was a wave for political change, and Tamil political parties splintered. People felt these parties only served their self-interests in seeking parliamentary seats. The proliferation of political parties, their inability to unite, all contributed to their massive defeat. It was both an anti-incumbent vote and a wave toward the NPP.

Amit Baruah

Kumar, I want to ask about this massive mandate. While turnout was slightly lower than the presidential elections, the NPP’s vote has increased dramatically. From your perspective in Colombo, what does this represent? Is it a departure from past elections, a rejection of Sri Lanka’s traditional political class?

Balasingham Skanthakumar

All of these and more. The electorate has sent a very clear message. This sentiment was building since 2021-2022, but we didn’t have the opportunity to exercise our franchise until this year. Even back then, there was enormous revulsion across Sri Lanka, across social classes, ethnicities, regions, and religions, directed against politicians. For a long time in this country, as in many parts of the world, people felt professional politicians existed to serve themselves. But it took this crisis - this economic and social crisis - and the emergence of the National People’s Power, seen as untainted by politics, for the public to finally reject traditional politicians. People always knew politicians had both hands in the kitty and were helping themselves to public resources. They saw the moral corruption, but they needed something to vote for, even if they weren’t quite sure what it was. This is absolutely unprecedented. You used the phrase “tsunami” this morning, and I had independently used it to describe this result. A few weeks ago, after the presidential election, we called it an earthquake. From earthquake to tsunami - that conveys how dramatic these developments have been for Sri Lanka’s political system, sending a message across the region and beyond.

Amit Baruah
Kumar, you’ve written extensively about the economic crisis and noted rising poverty levels in Sri Lanka. Would you say the NPP built its support on economic pressures - the austerity measures, tough times, fuel and gas cylinder queues, rising prices, food and medicine shortages?

Balasingham Skanthakumar

I’m not quite sure yet. These class-based issues haven’t necessarily led to similar reactions across the island. Yes, there’s a convergence in how austerity reforms have impacted people, but even during COVID-19 and the economic crisis, many in the north and east said they didn’t feel it the same way, having lived through decades of lacking necessities. Much as I’d like to say this is purely class-based sentiment, it’s still too amorphous to attribute to just one factor. What’s common, as we heard from Ahilan, is really a rejection of politics as usual. It’s a cry from the people for change in the political system. But that doesn’t mean north and south, east and west, all have the same expectations.

Amit Baruah

Ahilan, what’s your sense from Jaffna? Is this the end of the political class that has long governed your country? Is the Colombo elite threatened, no longer able to direct politics as it has for the last 70-75 years? And is the NPP truly an outsider to Sri Lankan politics?

Ahilan Kadirgamar

I’d say this is a major disruption in how the country has been governed. It’s not something the elite expected, and even ordinary people couldn’t imagine this kind of change. Once such disruption happens, it becomes very difficult to quickly rebuild another elite coalition, even five years down the line. This is a crucial moment for the country’s direction. The NPP has received a tremendous mandate to address multiple issues. In the north, there’s militarization, unemployment, and young people feeling they have no future, leading them to leave the country. People have different explanations - some blame corruption for the country’s state, others say it’s poor governance or wrong policies. Nevertheless, the NPP has this mandate to move the country forward. If the NPP doesn’t succeed, I don’t think we’ll return to business as usual. It could be much worse. Another actor would have to fill the vacuum, which could be very dangerous - perhaps the emergence of a rightist, authoritarian populist, or even fascist tendency. So this is a very different moment from the past many decades. I’d compare it to when [J. R.] Jayewardene came to power in the late ‘70s. It was similar - the world was experiencing an economic downturn, Sri Lanka faced a severe economic crisis in the 1970s under the left-leaning United Front government, which couldn’t handle the crisis. Jayewardene won an overwhelming victory with five-sixths of parliament under the first-past-the-post system. Now under proportional representation, this two-thirds majority is similar to that moment. He brought massive changes toward liberalisation - Sri Lanka became the first country to liberalise its economy, he introduced the Prevention of Terrorism Act, and all that contributed to the civil war tragedy. The NPP is at a similar moment now - will they be able to shift away from this neoliberal trajectory? Because that seems to have reached its dead end, otherwise we wouldn’t keep facing crises.

Amit Baruah

Sorry to interrupt, but what’s your sense - nobody expected this huge majority. Even the President said he’d be happy with just a majority not long ago. Do you think this massive number, which allows the NPP to amend the Constitution and make major legislative changes, will mean additional pressure on the president and government?

Ahilan Kadirgamar

Yes, in a way, but even before this election, I felt this government might have more space for addressing legal and constitutional issues, even the minorities question. Their bigger challenge will be economic issues. That’s not purely domestic - we defaulted on our debt, must repay creditors, and are in an IMF program. All the big powers in the region - India, China, the United States - have us by the throat using the IMF. If they keep squeezing Sri Lanka, as they’ve done to progressive regimes in Latin America, then the economic question and how to handle it becomes an even larger challenge, given we’re living in this very globalised, neoliberal economy.

Amit Baruah

Kumar, I wanted to ask about the large-scale movement out of Sri Lanka - people looking for jobs and permanent immigration. While working abroad isn’t new for Sri Lankans or South Asians generally, many professionals who leave tend to return. The queues for passports in Colombo show that emigration is a top concern. If this government creates opportunities, especially jobs, in Sri Lanka, could that stem the tide of people leaving?

Balasingham Skanthakumar

While many people, including government supporters, would like to see that scenario, I’d be more cautious. Firstly, people need economic relief now - they can’t wait months or years for development programs and policies to generate jobs and income. There’s still a feeling of pessimism about the overall situation. I wouldn’t speculate that political change alone will reduce the numbers seeking jobs abroad. However, we might see changes because of the bleak global situation. Many Western countries, traditional destinations for permanent migration, are closing their doors tighter due to their own economic issues and rising far-right, anti-immigrant sentiments. As for Middle Eastern countries and non-traditional destinations like South Korea and Malaysia, where many less-skilled Sri Lankan workers go, those economies are being impacted by developments in the Global North. We may see reduced demand for cheap labor from countries like Sri Lanka. But then what are the alternatives? The fact that so many have been able to leave means our remittances, our largest source of foreign exchange, have remained high in 2023 and this year. These remittances, largely generated by women, are keeping our economy and households afloat. I don’t think there’s an easy immediate substitute within Sri Lanka, even if the NPP realizes its economic plans quickly. Any enlightened government should work to remove reasons for distress migration while respecting freedom of movement and people’s choices. The distress migration we’ve seen is absolutely unacceptable, and it was tragic that the previous government was indifferent, seemingly wanting to increase the number of people going abroad to increase remittances. That cynicism and callousness is also what Sri Lankan voters have rejected in their verdict for the Dissanayake coalition.

Amit Baruah

Ahilan, you mentioned Sri Lanka’s debt crisis and eventual repayment obligations. To an outsider, the NPP appears linked to the JVP, which is associated with two insurrections in ’71 and ’87-89. Could you explain what economic approach the NPP is likely to adopt, and what implications this has for Sri Lanka’s dealings with India, China, the United States, and the West?

Ahilan Kadirgamas

The NPP hasn’t been very explicit about their economic program. They focused on coming to power, had a good electoral strategy, waited for the right moment, and moved the middle classes. They’ve been quite silent on issues like redistribution. Regarding the broader economy, while before the presidential election they talked about renegotiating the IMF program and creating a new debt sustainability analysis for creditor negotiations, there was tremendous pressure from the West and IMF after the presidential elections. They seem to have agreed, for now, to stay with the IMF program, which limits their ability to provide the immediate relief people need. They’ve said they support a production economy and won’t proceed with privatization, but haven’t made explicit policy positions on the export-led model or broader liberalization questions. That remains to be seen. Many of us are waiting - I think they were also waiting to see if they’d get a parliamentary majority. Now they must start governing, facing trade-offs between repaying creditors and providing public relief. The question is how far they’ll challenge powerful external actors like India, China, and the US, given Sri Lanka’s weak bargaining position after defaulting on debt. The next external shock could worsen the crisis.

Amit Baruah

What about their approach to foreign investment? There are concerns in the business community about the word “Marxist.” Many countries and parties claim to be Marxist but have business-friendly policies and are open to economic changes. Would the JVP or NPP be similar?

Ahilan Kadirgamar

Yes, I would characterize the NPP now as a center-left party. And they’ve been very open about it, that they welcome foreign investment, that their policies will be towards getting foreign investment. Now, the real issue is the kind of foreign investment that comes into Sri Lanka, right? What we’ve seen over the last many years, I mean, FDI has been less than a billion US dollars, and even within that 1 billion US dollars, about 70% is speculative investment in real estate. It’s not the kind of FDI that we used to know of that leads to the production and employment and so on. It’s speculative investment. And now with the economic crisis, what are we seeing? We are seeing a strategic grab for assets. You know, strategic assets in Sri Lanka. So, whether it is ports, whether it’s electricity generation plants, actors like Adani moving into Sri Lanka, Sinopec, the Chinese Petroleum Corporation is trying to build large refineries. So, these are the kind of investments that are coming into Sri Lanka at that moment, there are big questions as to whether they are actually desirable, given the long term interests of Sri Lanka, whether it would actually take Sri Lanka away from a history where you know, despite being a low income country for a long time, we were able to have much higher Human Development Indicators. You know, we had, 99% of our people have electricity — for a South Asian country, you can see how different it is. But in the last two years, with the economic crisis with the IMF program, 1.3 million households have been disconnected from the electricity grid. That’s about 20% of our households. So, those are the realities and if, if these profit making firms come and start to generate electricity, if they are the ones who are going to supply fuel would that be available to our working people five years from now? Is the big question before us.

Amit Baruah

Kumar, you know, before we just go to wind up our discussion for today, I wanted to ask you now that this, you know, massive majority is in place. There is talk, of course, of abolishing the executive presidency, whether it happens now or later. This is something which the NPP had committed to. There’s also talk of, you know, writing new legislation or a new constitution. So the question that comes to my mind is that of the minorities, especially the Tamil people, who have voted for the NPP, in a sense, you know, after a 26 year long insurgency and a decades old desire for, you know, greater rights for the Tamil people in Sri Lanka, the 13^th Amendment, in a sense, is what was written into the Constitution, which forms part of the Constitution following the Indo Sri Lanka accord. Do you feel that any changes to the statute you know, how might it impact the 13^th Amendment? You think this is something or to be concerned about, or this is something which the NPP leadership understands, and the significance of this, and the concerns of the Tamil people relating to such changes?

Kumar

I think the NPP is quite clear as to how important the 13^th Amendment is to the state of India. That is made very clear to them, I think by successive Indian governments and foreign secretaries. I’m not so sure that there is that same attachment to the 13^th Amendment within both the Tamil as well as Sinhala polity. Certainly, certain sections see the value of the devolution, the limited devolution, that the 13^th Amendment offered. And certainly many politicians welcome the ability to be able to have a large number of seats to contest for in order to also secure certain political positions. And of course, there is some devolution when it comes to financial resources. Which does make a difference when it comes to certain things like schools or hospitals which are part of the Provincial Council scheme. But Amit, here, I must remind you that, as you well know, when it came to its second insurrection, the JVP, in the late 80s took up arms against the 13^th Amendment, against the Indo Lanka accord, which, was the origin of what became the 13^th Amendment to the Constitution. And ever since the JVP, although it now contests and has been represented in provincial councils, it has been quite cautious not to itself too closely with the 13th Amendment. Likewise, in the Tamil polity, Amit as you well know that when it came to the splits within Tamil militant nationalism, you had one section which laid down arms and took part in that process; and you had another section, the LTTE [Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam] which did not; and it was the LTTE perspective on the provincial councils which, I would say, to a significant extent, continues to inform and influence the views of Tamil political parties, as well as the Tamil polity in general, including citizens in the north, at least; when it comes to their attitude towards it [provincial councils], they see it as being inadequate, as being not enough. And so far, the NPP has not given us any indication that it’s somehow taking the 13^th Amendment as its starting point. I think it’s quite significant that in its manifesto, in made no reference to that. Instead, it’s looking at these issues, or thinking about these issues afresh. Of course, that means that there will have to be some learnings taken from how the 13^th Amendment operated in practice, there will have to be some learnings about what we do when it comes to the division of subjects and functions and powers between the center and the provinces. There will have to be some learning surely when it comes to raising of taxes, revenues, and so on and so forth. But up to now, and I think it’s probably not a bad idea. It would be good if we didn’t begin a constitution making exercise, I think, on, you know, on the ground of the 13^th Amendment. Instead, we already have a fairly elaborated draft that was developed during the early years of the so-called ‘good governance’ regime, in 2015, 2016, 2017, in that period. And so it’s not that we need to start afresh in Sri Lanka. That draft was developed through an extensive public consultation process, so we have a working draft. And I think what we need and what we lacked in that period, and even in earlier periods is a government that goes and bats for power-sharing, not takes a hands off approach or a neutral approach, but actually goes and campaigns and canvasses for it and explains to people in every part of the country, not just in the north and east, but also in the south, in the highlands, in the east and in the west, how, by bringing power nearer people, they have more control over their lives. They have more control, their representatives are more accountable to them, and that therefore this is good for democracy.

Amit Baruah 

I’m afraid we have to wrap up quickly, but I just wanted to bring Ahilan in for a quick response. You know, Kumar makes this important point of this attachment to the 13^th Amendment. And I would like to rephrase my question in a way. And you know, ask you for a brief response is that the rights, rights-based approach, is more important, perhaps, than an amendment to the Constitution. And if you think there is trust between the ethnic communities and those stakeholders who are involving in involved in governing Sri Lanka, you think there could be more opportunities for the Tamil people or the Muslims to, in a sense, enjoy more rights in the country.

Ahilan Kadirgamar

Yeah. I mean, there’s also a debate in Sri Lanka about, you know, ensuring there’s economic, social and cultural rights enshrined in our Constitution and in a justiciable manner. But I still think the issue is of power sharing, right? It’s not just also about territorial devolution, which is important. So you bring power close to the people, but the minorities are also spread all over the country. So to give them the confidence that going forward, our state and the state power would be shared in a way that it does. Not work against a community. So to create that kind of structure and to give that confidence, and as Kumar mentioned, you know, the need for a political will, and it’s when somebody is in power they can do that, as opposed to saying, okay, here’s a proposal, choose if you want. So, that’s I think, the important thing. I just want to make one last point Amit. Sri Lanka is at this crucial moment the people have spoken. And what we have seen when things in Sri Lanka fall into place is that sometimes very powerful external actors tend to disrupt what goes on here. And I think this time, Sri Lanka should be given the space to work it out. And I think that that’s what we need in terms of international solidarity. Because hopefully, you know, with this, you know, four and a half decades, of neoliberalism and what we are seeing across the world, hopefully Sri Lanka can become an example to move forward, but that space has to be given for us to move forward.

Amit Baruah 

Well, I think, as an outsider, you know, the only thing I’d like to add is, I think this is a great moment for of hope for Sri Lanka and Sri Lankans. It’s a great opportunity. People want change. They want they want a better life. I think the mandate is very clear. The people have spoken, and all eyes will be on your government as to how they deliver on many of their promises, whether they are able to maintain that momentum of hope that has been generated because at the end of the day in a democracy, this is the only route available, and one can only hope that a process of consultation with the people will continue, and all the crisis that you face, both economically, politically and socially, are resolved, you know, in accordance with the wishes of all Sri Lankans, cutting across ethnic and religious barriers. Thank you so much Ahilan for joining me, and thank you so much, Kumar for sparing the your time for this analysis of what’s happening, what happened during the elections and what’s likely to happen in the coming weeks and months. Thank you. And this is Amit Baruah signing off from Colombo, thank you.

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Ahilan Kadirgamar

Balasingham Skanthakumar

Amit Baruah

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