Iranian missiles intercepted over Tel Aviv on the first day of the war. Assuming the cease-fire holds, there are still critical questions that will shape the future of the conflictCredit : Leo Correa/AP

U.S. President Donald Trump surprised the world – and, reportedly, even some of his senior aides – when he announced overnight on social media that Israel and Iran had agreed to a cease-fire to end what he dubbed « THE 12 DAY WAR. »

It took long hours after his self-congratulatory post for the Israeli government to respond, while Iranian missiles continued falling and killing innocent civilians in Be’er Sheva, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming acceptance of the cease-fire mid-morning.

Shortly afterward, two ballistic missiles fired from Iran forced residents in northern Israel back into bomb shelters. In response, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the IDF would retaliate « forcefully » for Iran’s violation of the cease-fire, promising « powerful strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran. »

There is thus still much uncertainty surrounding the cease-fire and what it means going forward for Israel, Iran and other regional actors.

Here are five key questions that will define the near future – assuming the cease-fire weathers its first day.

What are the exact terms of the cease-fire agreement ?

Once upon a time, international negotiations were the domain of legalistic documents crafted by seasoned lawyers and diplomats. Those days are long gone. Like the recent deal that ended several tense days of fighting between Pakistan and India, this cease-fire was announced on Trump’s social media accounts. The only publicly available information comes from what the American president chose to share with his millions of followers.

Trump’s description of the cease-fire is simple : both sides stop shooting, and the war is over. But we know that in the hours before Trump pressed ’send’ and began celebrating his historical achievement, intense discussions took place between Washington and Jerusalem. At the same time, there were frantic calls between the Iranian regime and the Qatari government, which effectively served as a mediator between Tehran and the White House. The substance of those conversations is critical – but, for now, remains hidden from the public.

The aftermath of an Iranian ballistic missile strike in Be’er Sheva this morning, hours after Trump’s cease-fire announcement. Four people were killed and 26 others wounded in the attack.Credit : John Wessels/AFP

What promises did the Americans make to Israel, and the Qataris to Iran ? Did either side agree to future limitations on its conduct ? Are there established boundaries for retaliation in case of cease-fire violations ? Did Iran make any concessions related to its nuclear program, or what remains of it ? Has Israel received any guarantees from Trump on that issue ?

For now, we are in the dark about these key issues, and they could determine both the durability of this cease-fire, and the main threats to its longer-term viability.

Trump declared in the hours after the announcement that the cease-fire would last « forever, » and that Israel and Iran would never again fight each other. But until we know the details of what has been agreed, there’s good reason to be highly skeptical of this grand and sweeping statement.

How bad is the damage to Iran’s nuclear sites ?

Israel started this war 13 days ago with one main mission : to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. That goal drove the initial surprise attack on Iranian air defenses, followed by precision strikes on its nuclear sites, culminating in Trump’s order to bomb uranium enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. But now, as the dust begins to settle, we still don’t know the extent of the damage caused to these installations, or how long it might take Iran to repair them, should it choose to do so.

The Iranians have claimed that the underground site in Fordow suffered only superficial damage. This should come as no surprise – nor should the Trump administration’s insistence that Iran’s nuclear program has been « obliterated » thanks to the president’s actions. Both sides have clear political interests in shaping the narrative, and their statements should be taken with a grain of salt, to say the least.

U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the nation on June 21 after U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites. While Washington claimed Iran’s nuclear program was « obliterated, » Tehran insisted the Fordow site suffered only superficial damage.Credit : Carlos Barria/AFP

Experts who have long tracked Iran’s nuclear program are more cautious in their estimates. Many agree that the nuclear sites have sustained significant damage, but it remains unclear whether they were completely destroyed or if some elements survived the bombardments.

This is a key question for measuring the success of the war, but also for assessing the stability of the cease-fire. If parts of these sites still exist, and Iran tries to use what is left of them to push forward with its nuclear program, the period of peace and stability we have been promised could turn out to be a rather short one.

What happened to Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium ?

This question is a direct continuation of the previous one, and just as important for the long-term prospects of the cease-fire. Both the Trump administration, the Israeli government, and the Iranian regime have publicly stated that some of the enriched uranium was removed from the sites struck by Israel and the U.S. before the bombs were dropped. But how much of it was saved, and where Iran is currently storing it – that we don’t know, and it may take a long time before we’ll have an answer.

The Iranians will try to present the preservation of the highly enriched uranium they still hold as proof of victory, despite their embarrassing losses on the battlefield. For Netanyahu and Trump, this creates a dilemma.

Admitting that the enriched uranium wasn’t destroyed would call their declarations of victory into question and cast doubt over the entire war effort. But on the other hand – at least for Netanyahu – it would keep the Iranian threat alive and allow him to continue campaigning on it, should an Israeli election take place soon, promising to finish the job.

Israel will obviously try to use its intelligence penetration of Iran to gather more information on the stockpile – and perhaps to seize it or destroy it. Such actions could trigger an Iranian response, and the fighting could resume almost exactly where it left off.

Does the cease-fire agreement also include the Houthis in Yemen ?

During the 12 days of direct Israel-Iran war, the Houthis mostly held their fire. There was no need for their ballistic missiles and drones to disrupt Israelis’ sleep and threaten Ben-Gurion Airport : the Iranians kept Israelis up at night, and all aerial traffic to the country was put on hold anyway. So the Houthis, who are closely aligned with Iran, sat this one out. But now that the war with Iran is apparently over, while Israel’s 627-day war in Gaza continues, the question is whether missiles from Yemen will continue to be regularly launched toward the country.

Israeli security personnel inspect a crater near Ben Gurion Airport after a missile from Yemen struck the area on May 4. Despite being Israel’s weakest enemy, the Houthis have dealt a significant economic blow over the past 20 months.Credit : Jack Guez/AFP

The Houthis, despite being Israel’s weakest enemy, have succeeded spectacularly over the past 20 months in exacting an economic toll on Israel. They shut down the Eilat port and convinced many foreign airlines to stay away from Ben-Gurion after one of their missiles fell on airport grounds. So whether or not they are part of the Israel-Iran cease-fire is an important question – especially in light of a potential Israeli shortage of defensive interceptors.

What will be the impact on the war in Gaza ?

Last but not least, there’s the question of Gaza. With the Iran front at least temporarily closed, Israel will now turn its focus completely to Gaza, where Hamas continues to hold 50 hostages, at least 20 of them thought to be alive.

Did Trump get a commitment from Netanyahu to end the war there, in return for his decision to strike the Iranian nuclear sites ? Will Israel finally agree to finish the longest war in its history ? Or will the suffering and senseless death there continue, while Trump loses interest in the Middle East after declaring victory in Iran ?

Activists demonstrate in Tel Aviv earlier this week, urging the public not to forget the Israeli hostages held in Gaza amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.Credit : Ahmad Gharabli/AFP

One theory mentioned by Israeli officials in recent days has been that Iran’s weakness will push Hamas to compromise and agree to a deal on Netanyahu’s terms. But the families of the hostages worry the opposite will happen : that Hamas, after watching the joint American-Israeli deception operation against Iran, will become even more suspicious of negotiations. The lives of millions hang in the balance.

Amir Tibon

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