Introduction: The number of Sri Lankan national flags on public display since early this year exceeds many fold that on any previous occasion including Independence Day, 1948. It is significant since President Rajapaksha recently said that the country will soon celebrate its second independence after defeating terrorism. Undoubtedly, there is enthusiasm among the Sinhalese for the military successes of the Sri Lankan armed forces against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The consequent surge in support for the government has been evident in the outcome of the four Provincial Council elections held since mid-2008, amid a visibly weakening economy, rising cost of living, unemployment, poverty, and an impending economic collapse, which the government hopes to avert with a massive IMF loan with stringent conditions that are sure to make life a bigger misery for the low income groups.

The war-induced popularity the government is supplemented by the preoccupation of the media and the main political parties with military gains in the North and will, at least for some months, divert attention from the crises faced by the country on various fronts.

Resumption of War and the Humanitarian Crisis: The scale of the human tragedy was large when the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) recaptured LTTE-held territory in the East. Bombing of public places, hunger and disease displaced around 200,000; civilian deaths were in the lower hundreds. Taking the war to the Vanni, the vast stretch in the North under LTTE control then, was certain to kill thousands and displace several hundred thousands.

Although supplies to the Jaffna peninsula by road ceased after August 2006 when the GoSL closed the A-9 highway, limited supplies went to the Vanni. As hostilities escalated, the GoSL and the armed forces restricted the supply of essential goods to the Vanni, including food, fuel and medical supplies. This was followed by the restriction of Non Governmental Organization (NGO) and media presence there, and around mid-2008 all media personnel and NGOs were ordered out. This to many was a sign that the GoSL was planning indiscriminate aerial and missile attacks. While the GoSL insisted, as always, that only identified military targets were being attacked, survivors of bombing and shelling told a different story. But in the absence of local and foreign media and NGOs, except for the limited presence of the Red Cross (ICRC), it has been hard to verify the number and nature of the casualties.

Whenever international organisations accused the GoSL of serious violations of human and fundamental rights, its spokespersons responded with vigorous denial, often in abusive language. A few European governments reacted with suspension of aid programmes, with no visible impact on GoSL attitude. The LTTE was accused too, mainly with conscription of children, and also of murderous attacks on innocent Sinhalese civilians.

What seemed a strategic retreat by the LTTE early this year with the fall of Kilinochchi, the civil administrative centre of the LTTE, turned out to be a prelude to defeat. By late March the area under LTTE control reduced to less than 100 square kilometres, and following a major blow suffered in early April the LTTE is confined to a 12 km long strip of land designated a “Safety Zone”. Without immediate ceasefire, that area too could fall to the GoSL forces before long, but with severe civilian casualties. It should be noted that a large section of the Vanni population opted to follow the LTTE as it retreated, so that through March, an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 were in the fast shrinking area under LTTE control. The GoSL claimed that they were held against their wishes as human shields, while the LTTE has denied the charge. It has, however, been reported that the LTTE had forcibly recruited people including children and that its cadres had fired at escaping civilians.

The GoSL, amid its intense aerial and artillery attacks, had declared Safety Zones for the people in LTTE-held areas; but charges have persisted that hundreds of civilians had been killed and many more wounded by attacks on these zones. Again, independent verification of eye witness account and photographic evidence available on Tamil nationalist web-sites is not possible. The Sri Lankan media, polarised and intimidated as it is, publishes little, but for comments by international bodies of some repute.

The casualty rate rose sharply in the past few months, and victims were mostly from the Safety Zone. To illustrate the high casualty rate: UN figures for minimum number of civilian casualties from 20^th January to 7^th March 2009 in the conflict area of Mullaitthivu (the last bit of territory held by the LTTE) was 2,683 deaths and 7,241 injuries. Strangely, the information was withheld by the UN until internal documentation leaked in the latter part of March. The GoSL rejected the figures and accused the UN of relying on hostile sources.

International Concern: When undeclared war came to the East in 2006 amid efforts to revive the stalled peace process, international concern seemed to be about getting the parties to abide by the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) of 2002 and reactivating negotiations. Attitudes shifted as the GoSL won control of the East in 2007 and launched its offensive to capture the LTTE-held region in the North. India and the ‘international community’, meaning imperialist powers with interests in Sri Lanka, always paid lip service to restoring peace but did little to persuade either party, the GoSL especially, to end hostilities. Declared concerns drifted with the progress of war: calls for a negotiated settlement and an end to hostilities became calls for a ceasefire in 2008, and early this year concern for the safety of civilians entrapped in LTTE controlled areas. The way the concern manifested itself has been hypocritical if not cynical.

The tragedy of Tamil nationalism, its leadership and the Tamil Diaspora is their misplaced faith in the UK, US, EU, UN, as well as India, since the birth of Bangladesh. Despite evidence to the contrary, many hoped that one or several of them would come to the rescue of the Tamils. The hope still lingers on, in the light of GoSL disregard for ‘international opinion’. But lobbying has so far achieved little more than empty assurances.

India provided the biggest disappointment if not shock. What was seen as Indian indifference not long ago has now been found to be encouragement of the war effort of the GoSL and active political and military collaboration, including on-ground logistic support. Protests in Tamilnadu have thus far failed to make a serious impact on Delhi, where there is no love for the LTTE. The forthcoming Indian parliamentary elections are, however, a factor in the shifting stands of the various political parties of Tamilnadu; and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Congress are desperate to keep the Sri Lankan Tamil tragedy out of the electoral arithmetic.

In whatever form the LTTE may emerge from its present plight, it cannot return to its earlier claim to be the ‘sole representative’ of the Tamils or its politics by command or its purely militaristic line. On the other hand, even if the LTTE is thoroughly humbled or eliminated as a military force, the struggle of the Tamils will go on as long as the underlying issues remain. The approach of the GoSL hitherto gives little room to hope that it will address the issues. What is most likely is that national oppression will intensify with the blessings of imperialist and hegemonic patrons. That is a bad thing. But it could be changed into its opposite by Tamils learning from past mistakes of not just the LTTE but Tamil nationalism as a whole.

The struggle for Tamil national rights will soon need to link itself with the struggle in the rest of the country for democratic, human and fundamental rights, and against globalisation, imperialism and hegemony; and with anti-imperialist and progressive liberation struggles internationally. The impending economic and political disaster throws the challenge at the genuine left among the Sinhalese to take the initiative towards building a broad united front.