We cannot blame the people of Northern Luzon if many of them deem the release of excess water from the San Roque Dam, at the exact time Typhoon “Pepeng” was battering their provinces, as the main cause of the great flood that claimed more than 400 lives, displaced hundreds of thousands of residents and destroyed billions of pesos’ worth of property. But blaming the dam is one thing, calling for its decommissioning is entirely another.

We will not talk about the politics of ambition. While it is true that some high-profile politicians have discovered, all too suddenly, the virtues of a class action suit against the dam operators when filed on behalf of a vote-rich population, we do not gainsay the sincerity, the waterlogged desperation, of other officials who blame the dam. When, say, Pangasinan Gov. Amado Espino Jr. called for a study of legal options that his government can file against the National Power Corp., which owns the dam and the spillway, we can take him at his word.

Indeed, a study must be made, but to determine with scientific precision exactly how many parts of Northern Luzon became, like Marikina City and Rizal province under “Ondoy,” an apocalyptic landscape. There is no dispute that excess water was released from San Roque Dam. The question is: What role did the release play in the unprecedented flooding? The study must take into consideration the fact that Pepeng made landfall in Luzon thrice—that is, it went back to hit the mainland twice—and altogether stayed over the affected provinces for about 10 days.

Thinking of the excess water as the main cause of the flooding is intuitive; to many people trapped in the water, it simply makes sense. But it is important—no, not only important, but crucial—that a scientific determination be made, because future policy will be based on its results. We are reminded of the valiant action of Mayor Ricardo Revita of the devastated town of Rosales, Pangasinan, who upon receiving an advisory last week that the San Roque Dam was about to release excess water, took a look for himself by climbing a bridge. He told the Inquirer then: “I’m now on top of the bridge and I’m trying to assess the volume of water flowing in the river. I think the river can absorb the water being released now.” Admirable, but ultimately risky for his town, because instead of relying on precision instruments he depended on his gut feel, his own intuition.

An official of the Department of Science and Technology has tried to raise the discussion above the level of common sense, by pointing out the likelihood that many factors were involved. “It increased the flood waters, yes, but to be flooded is a foregone conclusion. Evidence showed the amount of precipitation was just too much,” Undersecretary Graciano Yumul said. “With or without the dams, there would have been a flood. There was no way the mountains could absorb all that water. It’s a combination of several sources and reasons.”

The release of excess water must also be weighed against the alternative: not releasing the water when it reached the maximum allowable depth could have resulted in the dam springing a leak or, worse, approaching collapse. That, surely, would have had staggering implications.

All this has led some politicians and some special-interest groups to call for a decommissioning of the San Roque Dam. That conclusion requires a leap across the abyss of logic. A Napocor spokesman pointed out correctly that shutting down the dam would entail enormous costs, which carry their own nightmare scenarios. San Roque Dam helps irrigate part of the country’s rice bowl, tens of thousands of hectares planted to the staple, and generates as much as 500 megawatts of electricity. Shutting down the power generating plant in San Roque Dam (operated by the San Roque Power Corp.) will not prevent another Ondoy or Pepeng from wreaking havoc on the country, but it will quite literally plunge the island of Luzon into darkness.

Perhaps the hidden agenda behind all this talk of decommissioning is to lay the predicate for a nuclear power plant? That, as we all know, has its own nightmarish consequences.