NEW DELHI , Mar 1 (IPS) - As President George W. Bush begins his three-day visit to India, Wednesday evening, the two governments appear set to further consolidate their strategic and political relationship, despite glitches over planned civilian nuclear cooperation.

Such consolidation would mark a turning point for the formerly non-aligned India which has long taken fierce pride in pursuing an independent foreign and security policy and speaking on behalf of the developing countries from the Global South.

Ironically, a closer ’strategic partnership’ between the U.S. and India is on the cards despite their differences on the issue of nuclear weapons, itself related to India’s status as a non-signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which possesses nuclear weapons.

Contrary to earlier expectations, it now seems unlikely that Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will reach an agreement on fleshing out the nuclear cooperation deal they signed last July. The two governments had yet another round of talks last week, but failed to bridge their differences on separating India’s civilian nuclear facilities from military ones, and placing the civilian facilities under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.

On Monday, Singh made a statement in Parliament, in which he ruled out the inclusion of a class of reactors called fast breeders in the list of civilian facilities and said India could only place about 65 percent of its nuclear power capacity under safeguards. This would leave about eight to nine reactors out of international safeguards and hence ’free’ to produce fissile material for military use.

Singh’s statement came in response to intense pressure from the country’s Department of Atomic Energy and India’s hardline defence scientists’ lobby, which demands full freedom to develop an ambitious nuclear arsenal and has shrilly warned against compromising ’national security’.

However, the separation plan outlined by Singh is unlikely to win approval in the U.S. Congress. Without Congressional ratification, the nuclear deal cannot be finalised and the U.S. cannot resume civilian nuclear commerce with India. The U.S. Congress would like to see some sign of nuclear ’restraint’ on India’s part before it approves the deal.

Although it seems highly unlikely, it is not ruled out altogether that Bush may still hammer out an agreement with Singh on this vexed issue. It is more probable that the two leaders will issue a ’positive’ statement, reaffirming their commitment to successfully negotiating the nuclear deal, while emphasising agreements on a range of issues in order to claim that the Bush visit is a major success.

The subjects likely to be covered in the agreements, said to number as many as 14, include science and technology, space, agriculture, energy, trade, economic relations, upgradation of diplomatic missions, and military cooperation. The U.S. has promised to help India ignite a second ’Green Revolution’ in agriculture and also launch joint efforts to explore cleaner forms of coal production and other energy-related technologies.

The energy cooperation is part of the agenda of the ’Asia-Pacific Partnership’ on climate change jointly launched last year by some of the world’s greatest polluters, including the U.S., Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and India. This initiative is meant to bypass the Kyoto Protocol: two of the six member-states have refused to sign the protocol. The agreement does not seek to bring about major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, nor sets targets but emphasises ’technological fixes’ for rising energy consumption.

The participation of China and India in the ’Partnership’ will have major consequences for global warming. Both states, like the U.S. and Australia, have flatly refused emission reduction targets even after the Kyoto quotas are filled by 2012.

However, it is in the military field that the most important deals are likely to be made during Bush’s visit. ’’This is the core-area of the emerging India-U.S. partnership,’’ says Achin Vanaik, professor of international relations and global politics at Delhi University. ’’The U.S. is in search of a global empire. To build this, it needs an elaborate system of alliances which will neutralise rivals or prevent their rise. India has become a kingpin or pivot in the U.S. scheme of things for the Eurasian landmass, in particular the area stretching from West and Southwest Asia all the way to Central and East Asia,’’ adds Vanaik.

Crucial to the U.S. scheme is India’s potential role as a countervailing force vis-à-vis China, which the Pentagon’s ’Quadrennial Defence Review’ calls a ’’potential threat’’ to the U.S.

Indo-U.S. military agreements are likely to have two components: further consolidation of a far-reaching deal on defence cooperation signed last June, and big-ticket arms sale contracts. The defence agreement calls for joint operations in third countries. Under it, Indian naval ships will escort high-value U.S. cargo through the Indian Ocean to the Malacca Straits. It also mandates high-level military contacts and exercises.

Since 2002, India and U.S. have conducted 30 military exercises in different environments and locations, from Alaska to the Arabian Sea and the semi-tropical forests of n ortheastern India. More exercises are on the cards. Their size is likely to increase from 120 to 1,000 soldiers next year, and acquire brigade-level strength (3,000 troops) by 2008.

India has already emerged as one of the world’s top three importers of armaments, with purchases exceeding 5.5 billion dollars last year. It is now looking to the U.S. as a source of new-generation high-technology weaponry, including as many as 126 medium-range combat planes, patrol aircraft, early warning and combat systems, special radars, missile defence equipment, and unmanned aerial vehicles. The bill for these is expected to be 6-8 billion dollars.

The U.S. has issued no fewer than 1,320 licences for arms sales to India since 2002. Indian purchases amounted to a little under one billion dollars. Big corporations like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon and Honeywell are now driving the process. The U..S. and India are expected to sort out differences on issues such as guaranteeing supply of spares for major weapons systems, and on ’offsets’, or India’s policy of asking that 30 percent of the cost of a major arms deal be ploughed back into the country.

This means that India will change its policy to suit U.S. preferences.

’’Far more important than their discrete deals is the overall strategic relationship emerging between the U.S. and India,’’ says Anuradha Chenoy, from the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. ’’This is akin to a political and military alliance and spells loss of autonomy and erosion of sovereign decision-making for India. It’s tragic that India, which built a whole edifice of independent policies and institutions, should be demolishing it at the altar of a ’strategic partnership’ with the U.S., which is now in its most aggressive neo-conservative avatar.’’

India’s policy-makers have an elitist vision which is extremely pro-American. Recent surveys have found an astonishing degree of support and favourable opinion of the U.S. among India’s urban middle class.