Okinawa: Futenma base relocation has little hope left

OSAKA – The political games being played in Washington and Tokyo regarding whether the U.S. will fund the transfer of Okinawa-based U.S. Marines to Guam are of no consequence, experts say, because the 2006 plan to relocate the Futenma airbase to Henoko in northern Okinawa Island, which the Guam transfer depends upon, is all but dead.

The U.S. Congress decided earlier this week to cut $150 million from the fiscal 2012 budget that was earmarked for the planned transfer of 8,000 marines and roughly an equal number of their dependents to Guam by 2014, following the construction of a replacement base for Futenma at Henoko. But Congress’ decision is yet another nail in the coffin of the Futenma plan, experts say.

“My fundamental conclusion is that the Henoko project is virtually dead,” said Peter Ennis, U.S. correspondent of Weekly Toyo Keizai and the author of the Dispatch Japan blog. “For the first time, I’m also hearing from senior Japanese Foreign Ministry officials that the project is dead.”

After the cuts were announced, Michael Schiffer, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, told visiting Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara in Washington on Tuesday that if Japan presented its environmental impact assessment report on Henoko by the end of this year, Congress might reconsider approving at least some money.

However, Ennis and Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, say the mood in Congress makes that prospect dim, especially given that three powerful senators, Carl Levin, John McCain and Jim Webb, are strongly opposed to the Henoko agreement.

“With broad defense cuts due across the board, it’s highly unlikely money will flow to the relocation plan,” Smith said. “The time has come and gone for fiscal year 2012 discussions to be reopened. The bigger question is how to move forward.”

Ennis said: “The vast majority of congressional members are deferring to the judgment of the three senators. And they are, for different reasons, really committed to stopping this project.”Levin is motivated by the need for budget cuts, as it’s cheaper to have the 8,000 marines return to California. Webb, as a marine veteran, thinks marines should be on ships or on bases ready to move at a moment’s notice, and there is no need for expensive family facilities on Guam. McCain agrees with both," he added.

As for the impact of the budget cuts on Tokyo and Okinawa, Masaaki Gabe, professor of international relations and director of the International Institute for Okinawan Studies at the University of the Ryukyus, said there were two possibilities.

The cuts could put pressure on Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to go through with the Henoko plan, or he may just maintain the status quo, which is to do nothing.

“Between now and February, we’ll know whether or not Noda will carry out the Henoko relocation plan. But the Noda administration’s desire to go through with the deal is scant, so even in February, it’s possible the project could be halted,” Gabe said.

With the Okinawa Prefectural Assembly election slated for next June, there are some in the U.S. and Tokyo who are hoping voters will elect a probase majority, putting pressure on Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima to accept the plan. But the assembly chairman, Zenshin Takamine, who met with Sens. Levin and Webb in Okinawa earlier this year, said that was wishful thinking.

“The Okinawa assembly has unanimously called on Japan and the U.S. to relocate Futenma outside Okinawa, and those opposed include LDP members. Many other towns and villages in Okinawa have also passed resolutions against the Henoko plan and are calling for the relocation of Futenma outside of Okinawa. Going forward with the Henoko move in the face of such opposition would actually further damage Japan’s relations with the U.S.,” Takamine said.

ERIC JOHNSTON, Japan Time Staff writer, December 16, 2011
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20111216a4.html

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 Okinawa: U.S. Congress to nix funding for relocating Okinawa Marines to Guam

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) — The U.S. Senate and House of Representatives agreed Monday to cut from the annual spending bill for fiscal 2012 through next September the entire $150 million funding requested by the government for the planned relocation of some 8,000 U.S. Marines from Okinawa in Japan to Guam.

The related bills will likely clear the Senate and House soon and be enacted with the signature of President Barack Obama.

With the decision reached by representatives of the two chambers of Congress, the prospects of a bilateral plan to relocate the Marine Corps’ Futenma Air Station within the Japanese prefecture have also become more uncertain, as the package deal includes the transfer of Marines to Guam.

After a meeting of the two chambers, John McCain, a Republican from Arizona, told reporters, “The Pentagon agreed with us that we should put a pause on this whole realignment issue and get a study as soon as possible and an assessment of how this realignment can work and how to do it in a most efficient fashion.”

Japan and the United States remain committed to relocating the Futenma base within Okinawa but the issue has been a stumbling block in deepening the bilateral security alliance, as little progress has been made amid fierce opposition among Okinawa residents.

While the House approved a $156 million outlay for the relocation of Marines from Okinawa to Guam as part of the budget for military facility construction for the 2012 fiscal year, the Senate cut the requested funding.

After consultations between the two chambers, the House compromised to accept the budget cut.

Calling the current relocation plan “unfeasible and unrealistic,” some U.S. lawmakers have floated an idea of integrating the Futenma base with the Kadena U.S. air base in Okinawa, but policymakers of both countries dismissed the proposal, which has already been studied.

Kyodo Press, December 13, 2011
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/national/archive/news/2011/12/13/20111213p2g00m0dm061000c.html

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 Okinawa: No change in Japan’s stance on moving Okinawa U.S. Marines to Guam

TOKYO (Kyodo) — Japan has not changed its stance of implementing an accord with the United States that includes moving U.S. Marines stationed in Okinawa to Guam, despite a move by the U.S. Congress to cut the entire funding for the relocation for fiscal 2012 through next September, Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said Tuesday.

“There is no change in the Japanese government’s stance on moving the U.S. Marines to Guam in order to reduce Okinawa’s burden,” Fujimura, the top government spokesman, said at a press conference.

His remarks came after the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives agreed Monday to cut from the annual spending bill the entire $150 million funding requested by the government for the planned relocation of some 8,000 U.S. Marines from Okinawa in Japan to Guam.

The related bills will likely clear the Senate and House soon and be enacted with the signature of President Barack Obama.

Concerns are growing that the development in Washington could further stall progress on relocating a key U.S. base within Okinawa Prefecture, prompting Japanese government officials to collect more information on the situation.

The agreement reached by the U.S. Congress could blur the outlook of a bilateral plan to move the U.S. Marine Corps’ Futenma Air Station within the prefecture, as it is linked to the transfer of the Marines from Okinawa to Guam.

Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba will reconfirm the importance of the bilateral plan, which will move the air station to a coastal area within the prefecture from the current densely populated location, when he holds talks with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton next Monday in Washington, according to Japanese government officials.

Fujimura said the government’s plan to submit to Okinawa Prefecture a necessary environment assessment report for the relocation by the year-end remains intact.

Local authorities and citizens are strongly opposed to the relocation plan, demanding the central government move the whole base out of the southern island prefecture.

Defense Minister Yasuo Ichikawa said Tuesday that Tokyo will strengthen its efforts to urge Washington to smoothly move forward the relocation of the Marines to Guam based on the existing bilateral accord.

The Japanese government has decided to allocate about 37 billion yen in its fiscal 2011 defense budget for the construction of utility facilities and the improvement of infrastructure on Guam in connection with the transfer of the U.S. Marines from Okinawa.

Kyodo Press, December 13, 2011
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/national/archive/news/2011/12/13/20111213p2g00m0dm141000c.html

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