LDP still leads in voter poll, next is Nippon Ishin

The Liberal Democratic Party remains voters’ top choice for the Dec. 16 general election with a support rate of 18.4 percent, according a Kyodo News opinion poll conducted over the weekend.

The conservative LDP was followed by Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party), according to the nationwide telephone poll on Saturday and Sunday.

Nippon Ishin, led by former Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara and Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, drew a support rate of 10.4 percent for the proportional representation segment of the election, up a tick from 10.3 percent in the previous poll on Nov. 24 and 25.

The ruling Democratic Party of Japan remained in third place with 9.3 percent after climbing from 8.4 percent in the previous survey.

The newly launched Nippon Mirai no To (Tomorrow Party of Japan) garnered 3.5 percent support. The party, born late last month, quickly merged with Kokumin no Seikatsu ga Daiichi (People’s Life First) headed by political veteran Ichiro Ozawa, Genzei Nippon, and other small parties. Its support rate represented a gain of 0.8 point from the total support ratings in the previous survey.

Nippon Mirai, headed by Shiga Gov. Yukiko Kada, came in fifth, while New Komeito ranked fourth with 4.8 percent, up from 3.8 percent.

Support for the Japanese Communist Party stood at 3.1 percent, up from 2.2 percent, followed by Your Party at 2.9 percent, up from 2.8 percent. The Social Democratic Party garnered 0.5 percent, down from 1.4 percent, and New Party Daichi 0.1 percent, down from 0.4 percent. New Party Nippon secured 0.3 percent and New Renaissance Party 0.1 percent.

The survey also signaled that 41.5 percent of the electorate has no idea who to vote for. The results said that 35.9 percent expect a new government following a political realignment after the election, while 19.1 percent expect a grand coalition between the DPJ and LDP, 19.0 percent expect an LDP-led government, and 7.4 percent anticipate a DPJ-led government.

Asked who is more suitable to be prime minister – current Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda or LDP chief Shinzo Abe – 34.3 percent of the respondents picked Abe and 32.2 percent favored Noda. Abe has led Noda in this regard in all of the three pre-election polls by narrow margins.

No margin of error was given.

The support rate for Noda’s Cabinet stood at 26.8 percent, up from 23.9 percent in the previous survey.

Kyodo Press, December 4, 2012
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20121204b1.html

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 Nippon Ishin seen closing gap with front-runner LDP in latest election poll

A nationwide poll over the weekend showed Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) chasing the conservative Liberal Democratic Party but leading the ruling Democratic Party of Japan as the top choice for next month’s general election.

The results of the telephone poll conducted by Kyodo News and released Sunday reflect voter dissatisfaction with the nation’s two biggest parties.

Nippon Ishin, led by founder and Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto and former Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, merged with Ishihara’s Sunrise Party on Nov. 17 to form a “third force” against the LDP and DPJ.

According to the results, support for the LDP in the proportional representation section of the Dec. 16 House of Representatives election has dropped to 18.7 percent from 23.0 percent tallied in the previous survey from Nov. 17 to 18.

Support for Nippon Ishin meanwhile grew to 10.3 percent, improving on the 7.8 percent support rating it got when it was lumped in with Sunrise Party in the previous survey.

The DPJ slid to third place after support fell to 8.4 percent from 10.8 percent in the previous survey.

The survey was conducted using calls made to telephone numbers picked at random by computer. Of the 1,776 eligible voters reached, 1,230 responded.

The poll is the second of its kind since Prime Minister and DPJ chief Yoshihiko Noda dissolved the Lower House on Nov. 16. Kyodo will conduct three more to track voter preferences ahead of the election.

Asked who is most suitable to be prime minister, 33.9 percent of the respondents said LDP chief Shinzo Abe and 30.0 percent said Noda.

In the first survey, 32.1 percent favored Noda and 35.0 percent backed Abe.

In the proportional representation section, support for New Komeito stood at 3.8 percent, followed by Your Party with 2.8 percent, and the Japanese Communist Party and Kokumin no Seikatsu ga Daiichi (People’s Life First) both drawing 2.2 percent.

For single-seat constituencies, 19.8 percent backed LDP candidates, 9.5 percent Nippon Ishin candidates and 8.8 percent DPJ candidates.

More telling, however, was who independent voters backed when asked which party they would support if they had to choose. About 23 percent went with the LDP, followed by 13.9 percent for Nippon Ishin and 12.4 percent for the DPJ.

The support rating for Noda’s Cabinet, meanwhile, stood at 23.9 percent, down slightly from the 24.3 percent it received in the previous survey.

Asked to identify the most critical issues in the election, 28.7 percent said social security, including pensions and health care, while 28.6 percent highlighted employment and economic measures.

According to the survey, 96.5 percent of the respondents said they will “definitely” or “do their best” to vote.

Kyodo Press, November 26, 2012
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20121126a8.html

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 LDP pushing for restart of all reactors

All nuclear power plants must be restarted as quickly as possible after confirming they are safe, an executive of the Liberal Democratic Party said three weeks ahead of the Lower House election that polls indicate will return his party to power.

“Looking at energy prices, we are clearly in a situation where we need to restart the nuclear reactors,” Hiroyuki Hosoda, chairman of the LDP’s general council, said Monday in an interview.

All but two of the nation’s 50 reactors remain offline since being shut down due to the Fukushima nuclear crisis. Eight power utilities reported combined first-half losses of \674 billion, a sign that more rate hikes are likely.

The future of the nation’s reactors is a key issue in the Dec. 16 election. The Democratic Party of Japan has pledged to wean the country from nuclear power by 2030, while the LDP is calling for a decision on whether to restart all reactors within the next three years. Polls show two-thirds of voters support neither major party, indicating the LDP may have to form a coalition with lawmakers who favor abolishing nuclear energy.

“It’s difficult to make the argument that we should restart the reactors because of economic problems, given the disaster at Fukushima,” Hosoda said. “But we believe we should restart them quickly when their safety has been confirmed.”

The DPJ renewed in its election platform a pledge to reduce reliance on nuclear power to zero by the 2030s. Before the crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 power plant, almost 30 percent of the country’s electricity came from nuclear energy.

Now only two reactors, at Kansai Electric Power Co.’s plant in Oi, Fukui Prefecture, are online but they and others are under scrutiny over active faults that lie near or under them.

Thousands of nuclear power opponents held weekly protests outside Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s office earlier this year. A government-backed public forum found in August that 47 percent of participants favored cutting nuclear power to zero.

Kansai Electric Power Co. and seven other power utilities posted their combined losses of \674 billion in the six months through Sept. 30 due to rising costs for running gas, oil and coal plants to make up for lost nuclear power generation. The companies face a bill of about \6.8 trillion for fuel this fiscal year, almost double the tally in the 12 months before the Fukushima disaster.

Hosoda also echoed LDP leader Shinzo Abe’s criticism of the Bank of Japan’s efforts to end more than a decade of deflation. The party has called for unlimited monetary easing to meet an inflation target of 2 percent and advocates more political influence over the central bank, drawing objections from Noda.

“The whole world is carrying out extremely large-scale monetary easing,” Hosoda said. “Japan is the only slow one. The DPJ continues with its criticism based on the illusion that large-scale easing, or providing funds to the market, will lead to 1940s-style inflation.”

He added that the LDP might not insist on changing the law governing the BOJ if the bank takes more easing measures of its own accord.

On Monday, however, Hiromasa Yonekura, chairman of the Keidanren business association, criticized Abe’s monetary policy, calling it “reckless.”

“It’s too reckless to carry out tactics that nations around the world have prohibited,” Yonekura told reporters in a rare criticism against the leader of the business-friendly LDP.

To force the BOJ to buy government bonds would be interpreted internationally as a move for the bank to cover the government’s deficit, Yonekura said.

“I don’t think the market is moving because of President Abe’s comments,” Yonekura continued, referring to the recent depreciation of the yen attributed to market expectations that Abe would press for aggressive monetary policy as prime minister.

“Rather, the cheaper yen is the fruit of the BOJ’s additional monetary easing,” Yonekura said.

The influential business lobby has traditionally had close ties with the LDP, but Yonekura said it will now support parties “based on policies.”

Bloomberg, AFP-Jiji, Kyodo, November 29, 2012
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20121129n1.html

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 Your Party aims to end Japan’s nuclear power use in 2020s

Your Party, a minor political party, promised to end the nation’s use of nuclear power in the 2020s in its campaign platform for the Dec. 16 House of Representatives election unveiled Wednesday.

If it comes into a position of power, the party would implement drastic power industry liberalization measures, including separating power distribution operations from existing power suppliers, in 2020 in order to slash costs, so Japan can reduce its reliance on high-cost nuclear energy to zero in the 2020s, according to the platform unveiled by party head Yoshimi Watanabe.

The party called for a freeze on the sales tax hikes, saying lawmakers and bureaucrats should endure pain first.

The party said the number of Lower House seats should be reduced to 300 from the current 480 and House of Councilors seats cut to 100 from 242. It proposed that lawmakers’ salaries and bonuses be cut by 30 percent and 50 percent, respectively.

Japan should adopt a unicameral system for the Diet after reorganizing the nation’s existing prefectures into larger administrative units with greater autonomy, the party said.

Your Party wants Japan to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade talks at an early date. It also promised to achieve annual nominal economic growth of 4 percent and a 50 percent increase in national income over the next 10 years.

Watanabe told a news conference the party will aim to promote growth by putting its policy promises into action.

Jiji Press, November 29, 2012
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20121129b5.html

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 Noda will schedule election for Dec. 16: Lower House now on track to be dissolved Friday

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Wednesday he plans to dissolve the Lower House on Friday and schedule the general election for Dec. 16.

Noda made the offer in return for the opposition camp’s agreement to support an electoral reform bill submitted by his Democratic Party of Japan, when the Diet reconvenes in January.

Later in the day, Abe said he will “fully cooperate to carry out the proposal from the prime minister.”

Numerous DPJ members have tried desperately to stop Noda from dissolving the chamber as the party would suffer a crushing defeat if the election is held now.

Media polls and reports have suggested the DPJ could win fewer than 100 seats, whereas it won 308 in the 2009 election when it replaced the LDP as the ruling party.

Why Noda wants an election next month is unclear. But observers say he apparently believes the DPJ’s popularity would only continue to decline the longer he holds out, because the opposition parties would keep attacking him “as a liar” for promising in August to dissolve the chamber “soon.”

An early election could help protect the major parties from small emerging parties, most notably Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) led by Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, because the newcoming forces won’t have time to field a strong lineup of candidates across the country.

The DPJ has proposed that the Diet correct the vote-value disparities in the Lower House and slash 40 seats from the proportional representation segment of the 480-member chamber.

While the DPJ and LDP have agreed to eliminate one single-seat district from each of five low-population prefectures to fix the disparity, the LDP was against the DPJ’s proposal to cut 40 representational seats.

The Supreme Court ruled last year that the gap in the 2009 Lower House election, in which the DPJ won a landslide victory, was in effect unconstitutional.

With the special bill to issue deficit-covering bonds expected to clear the Lower House on Thursday, Noda has been leaning toward dissolving the chamber.

Noda’s sudden decision has also sparked speculation that more DPJ members will leave the party, as its popularity plunges, to avoid defeat in the election.

NATSUKO FUKUE, Japan Times staff writer, November 15, 2012
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20121115a1.html

(Information from Kyodo added)

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 Foes forced Noda to call dissolution

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda moved to dissolve the Lower House on Friday amid constant pressure from the opposition and also from Democratic Party of Japan members who wanted him to step down, but his gamble is unlikely to work in the ruling party’s favor.

Experts say the DPJ is running a huge risk of being booted from office three years after wresting power from the Liberal Democratic Party in the Dec. 16 general election, which pundits predict the LDP will win.

“It looked like Noda made the announcement in an effective manner, but in reality he was forced” to make a last-ditch effort to break the deadlock in the Diet, said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University. “Noda seems more interested in gaining a reputation as a great politician rather than doing what’s best for his party.”He promised (in August) to dissolve the Lower House ’soon,’ and that word became a burden for him," Nakano added.

Even though the DPJ has yet to field candidates for about 50 of the 300 single-seat constituencies for the Lower House poll, Noda ultimately “did not have any choice” but to dissolve the chamber, Nakano said.

Noda promised the leaders of the LDP and New Komeito in August that he would dissolve the House of Representatives sometime “soon” in exchange for their support in passing his key bill to hike the sales tax. But with no dissolution in sight three months on, he found himself routinely labeled a “liar” by the opposition.

Within the ruling camp, meanwhile, several Cabinet ministers were reportedly considering resigning in protest over Noda’s intention to dissolve the Lower House by the end of December Å\ a development that would have further weakened his authority and put him in an even tighter jam.

There had also been much speculation recently that more lawmakers were thinking of quitting the DPJ, while its internal anti-Noda faction, which fiercely opposes his planned sales tax hike, was stepping up efforts to replace him as party president.

Six DPJ members have announced they will leave the party this week, among them former farm minister Masahiko Yamada, who voiced his intention to resign Thursday, and ex-Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa, who is expected to join Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto’s fledgling Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) national group.

If these six members carry through on their threat, the ruling coalition’s presence in the Lower House would be reduced to 239 lawmakers in total, meaning it would no longer hold a majority in the chamber.

With the Cabinet’s support rating plunging to a record low, an early election is the last thing DPJ members wanted to see at this stage. According to a survey conducted over the weekend by the Asahi Shimbun, the popularity rate of Noda’s Cabinet has fallen to an anemic 18 percent.

NATSUKO FUKUE, Japan Times staff writer, November 16, 2012
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20121116a2.html

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 LDP leads the pack in proportional representation vote: Mainichi poll

The main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is the most popular party with the Japanese people in the proportional representation segment of the Dec. 16 House of Representatives election, closely followed by the newly launched Japan Restoration Party (JRP), a Mainichi Shimbun poll shows.

The survey, taken Nov. 17 and 18, shows the LDP leading the pack at 17 percent, followed by the JRP at 13 percent and the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) at 12 percent. The Sunrise Party, which will be merged into the JRP, got 4 percent in the poll, bringing the expanded JRP’s support rate to 17 percent to equal the LDP’s. Numerous minor parties made up the rest of the vote.

When asked about an ideal political framework after the general election, 35 percent of respondents expressed support for a government led by parties other than the DPJ or the LDP, while 26 percent favored a coalition government of the DPJ and the LDP. Only 18 percent voiced their support for an administration led by the LDP while 11 percent did the same for an administration led by the DPJ.

The Mainichi poll thus reflects the growing indications that the upcoming election will become a three-way race among the DPJ, the LDP and a third political force headed by the JRP.

The LDP is ahead in five of eight regions, including the Chugoku/Shikoku and southern Kanto regions with support rates of 26 percent and 21 percent, respectively. The JRP topped other parties in the Kinki and Hokuriku-Shinetsu/Tokai regions with 22 percent and 16 percent, respectively. The ruling DPJ surpassed the LDP and the JRP only in the northern Kanto region with 20 percent.

In the poll, public support for the LDP came to 17 percent, down 8 percentage points from the previous poll in September, reflecting sagging popularity. Public support for the DPJ remained unchanged at 11 percent and that for the JRP rose two points to 10 percent.

When asked who is fit for prime minister between incumbent Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and LDP President Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister, 22 percent chose Abe and 20 percent picked Noda. Seventy-nine percent of DPJ supporters favored Noda while 66 percent of LDP backers named Abe. But 53 percent of respondents said neither Abe nor Noda is ideal to serve as prime minister.

Respondents also showed reservations to a coalition among members of the emerging third political force. When asked if the JRP under Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto and the Sunrise Party led by Shintaro Ishihara should cooperate in the general election, 36 percent were against and 34 percent in favor. Twenty-four percent said they had no interest.

Hashimoto and Ishihara said Nov. 17 that their new political parties will be merged ahead of the election. As for the upcoming election which will be held without rectification of disparities in the value of votes in selected single-seat constituencies, 70 percent said the move can’t be helped while 21 percent said Prime Minister Noda should not have dissolved the powerful lower house for a snap election.

According to the Mainichi poll, public support for the Noda Cabinet dipped two points from September to 23 percent, as compared with 54 percent who disapproved of it, up one point. But 58 percent of respondents took Noda’s action to dissolve the lower chamber and call a snap election positively while 36 percent did not.

Mainichi Shimbun, November 19, 2012
http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20121119p2a00m0na020000c.html

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 LDP doubles up DPJ in public support

The Liberal Democratic Party has more than twice as much support as the Democratic Party of Japan, according to the latest Kyodo News survey.

The nationwide telephone poll conducted Saturday and Sunday also showed that Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has made slight inroads into the popularity of LDP leader Shinzo Abe.

The survey was conducted using calls made to numbers randomly generated by computer. A total of 1,754 eligible voters were reached, of whom 1,217 responded to the survey.

Twenty-three percent of the respondents said they intend to vote for the LDP in the proportional representation section of the Dec. 16 Lower House election, while 10.8 percent said they will vote for the DPJ.

A similar trend was found for single-seat districts, with 24.0 percent saying they will vote for LDP candidates and 10.9 percent saying they vote for DPJ candidates.

Among the so-called third force political groups challenging the DPJ and the LDP, Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) led by Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto earned 6.8 percent and Taiyo no To (Sunrise Party) founded by former Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara garnered 1.0 percent.

On Saturday, Hashimoto and Ishihara announced a merger of Taiyo no To and Nippon Ishin No Kai with Ishihara as its head.

In response to a question on who is most suitable to be prime minister, 35.0 percent of the respondents said Abe and 32.1 percent said Noda.

In a previous Kyodo survey conducted Nov. 3 and 4, Abe earned 40.0 percent and Noda 29.8 percent.

The latest figures appear to indicate that Noda succeeded in closing the gap with Abe following a televised one-on-one Diet debate last Wednesday in which the prime minister in a surprise move pledged to dissolve the Lower House on Friday on condition that the LDP cooperates in passing measures on electoral reform.

The latest survey also showed that support for New Komeito stands at 4.0 percent, followed by Your Party at 2.0 percent and the Japanese Communist Party at 1.9 percent.

A total of 43 percent said they have not yet decided which party they will vote for, according to the survey, the first conducted since Noda dissolved the Lower House on Friday.

Asked to identify issues they consider important, 29.2 percent cited social security, including pensions and health care, followed by employment and economic measures at 28.4 percent.

Only 2.6 percent cited Japan’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade talks, while 9.1 percent cited energy policy, including the use of nuclear power.

A total of 78.2 percent said they are “very interested” or “fairly interested” in the upcoming election, down from 82.8 percent in the first round of a similar series of surveys conducted ahead of the 2009 general election.

Kyodo Press, November 20, 2012
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20121120a1.html

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