Filipino families have apprehension over the implication of news like this: “Three million OFWs in the Middle East will lose their jobs if the price of oil continues to plummet.” Their families will starve. Children will have to drop from school.

It is not only families with OFWs in the said region that will be negatively affected. This will impact on the life of the entire Philippines.

 Oil and jobs in West Asia

While workers in West Asia are into different kinds of jobs, their growth, especially in the number of OFWs closely relates to the production of and business in oil.

In the first half of the 20^th century, oil was discovered in several countries of West Asia: in the northwestern mountains of Persia (now Iran) in 1908; in Kirkuk in Iraq in 1927, in Bahrain in 1932, in Kuwait in 1934 and in Damman, Saudi Arabia in 1938.

Oil speedily changed lives and livelihoods in these countries of oil. It hastened the building of infrastructure and the search for new oil fields in the said countries and in other countries in West Asia and Africa especially after the Second World War. Saudi Arabia became the second largest oil producer next to the US. Five of the world’s biggest oil producers are Middle East countries.

The influx of workers in West Asia from different parts of Asia and Africa, however, happened in the 1970s especially after the Yom Kippur War or the Israel Arabian War, October 6─21, 1973. Arab countries decided to impose an oil embargo on the US, meaning, they refused to sell oil to the US because of its support for Israel during the war. Included in the embargo were other industrialized countries that had a great need for oil and were allies of the US like Canada, Japan, The Netherlands and the UK. Arab countries also included in the embargo a little later Portugal, Rhodesia (Mozambique) and South Africa.

These countries panicked while the US concealed the fact that it still had in storage a large amout of oil. This situation created a big demand for oil and its price surged (reaching $34 per barrel, equivalent to $101 at present). Gulf countries made a killing out of this, which earned them more wealth and power.

This led to the increase in opportunities for work in West Asia especially in Saudi Arabia. They had to build many roads, ports and airports to transport people and products. They had to make oil wells, new pipelines, offshore plaforms and oil rigs. They needed more oil tankers. And, they had to build more housing facilities for workers and buildings for offices and banks. The economy of West Asia grew further and they needed more modern homes, more doctors, dentists and nurses, more shops and shopkeepers, drivers and caregivers.

The oil-driven economic progress resulted also in changes in the way people think. Many among the youth refused to do difficult, hairsplitting, dirty and heavy work and to handle these, they depended on workers from poor countries like the Philippines, Indonesia and Pakistan. Those who went to West Asia were not limited to engineers, nurses and construction workers; wash women, housekeepers, janitors, manicurists and hairstylists trooped to the region as well.

 The Philippines’ labor export policy

In the Philippines, on the other hand, since 1975, the dictator Ferdinand Marcos implemented its Development Diplomacy. This was a policy to ease the Philippines of its burgeoning unemployment problem. This was also a step towards curbing the growth of the rebel movement.

Every administration in the Philippines did not undertake major changes in the policy. The country would increasing send workers abroad every year except in 2014. The top destinations were North America, West Asia, Southeast and East Asia. This has become the primary means to insure that Philippine economy remains afloat.

According to the National Economic and Development Authority in 2012, the Philippines would not survive if not for the money remitted by OfWs. OFW remittances totaled $24 billion (P1,178 trillion) in 2014. During the first seven months of 2015, it totaled, $16.21 billion or P764 billion.

In the last five years, Saudi Arabia was the leading destination of OFWs, the United Arab Emirates was second, third and fourth were Hongkong and Singapore, fifth was Qatar and sixth was Kuwait.

 The problem with the price of oil

The price of oil in the international market started to take a downturn in June 2014. The major reason for this was the increase in the production of shale oil that rose to four million barrels per day since 2008.

From a price of $107/barrel at the start, it fell to $60/barrel in December 2014 and it fell several times more until it reached its lowest at $28/ barrel.

Many believe and US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and US Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Daniel Glase confirmed in an investigation of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives in May 2014 that along with other sanctions, the drop in the price of oil is a ploy of the US to weaken Russia and replace Putin with someone like Ukraine’s president who is subservient to the US. It is not merely Russia, though, that grumbles.

Worsely affected are the economies and people’s lives in oil producing countries in West Asia and Africa. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the state depends on oil for 80% of their budget. Forty five percent of its GDP comes from payments for oil. It expects a budget deficit of a little less than $100 billion for 1916.

Its foreign reserves depleted to merely $640 last year from $737 in 2014. They have implemented firing of workers en masse in at least three companies that failed to pay wages to workers for a long period.

 Instability and war

Their involvement in US-led wars and destabilization worsened the financial problems of some oil producing countries. Involving allies in wars/military interventions it is engaging in is among the foreign policies of the US now. This is a part of its strategy at a time when it can only allocate smaller funds, it therefore urges its allies to spend for US’s wars and take these like their own. The US likewise persuades its allies to be in the forefront of its wars while it executes its “leadership from behind.”

In line with this and also because of their own geopolitical interests, Saudi Arabia and other countries in West Asia have been involved in the wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria for a long time. Since March 2015, Saudi Arabia is in the forefront of the Gulf coalition in a war of aggression in Yemen ostensibly to exterminate the Houthi rebels, punish the Saleh government and to block Iran.

Involved in the war in Yemen are Morocco, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia itself.

These oil-rich countries in West Asia are spending large amounts in wars. Saudi Arabia became the third biggest military spender in the world with US$87.2 billion in military expenses. It spent for the war in Yemen with an additional US$ 5.7 billion. The IMF forecasts that Saudi Arabia will be deep in debt within five years.

 Overcoming the Problems of West Asia and of workers

Saudi Arabia and the other oil producing countries (in West Asia) are seriously confronting the growing problem affecting their economies. They now have plans on how to free themselves from the almost sole dependence on oil. They have set measures like the privatization of 5.0% of Saudi Aramco, allowing the entry of more foreign investors, developing tourism and making the local youth do some of the work that foreigners handle in order to save on expenses for wages.

While we do not witness yet the large scale firing and sending home of OFWs, preparations should be serious especially now that religious extremism has become one of the US’s instruments of war. The places where OFWs concentrate are in greater danger of getting into direct firefight.

The fruits of the hard work of OFWs are a big help to Philippine economy. While it may not resort to banning the diaspora, the government should primarily plan for and take concrete steps towards building an economy that can absorb the increasingly growing workforce of the Philippines through methods that will truly develop the foundations of the economy of the country.

Melissa Gracia Lanuza