The survival of Michel Barnier’s future government depends on the goodwill of the National Rally, the far-right party of Marine Le Pen that finished third in this summer’s snap election.

The New Popular Front, the left-wing alliance that won the most seats but fell short of an absolute majority, has already sworn to back no-confidence motions against Barnier in the National Assembly. Barnier will therefore need the tacit support of the far right to ensure his government isn’t immediately toppled — the pro-Macron coalition and the conservative Republican Right group likely to back the new prime minister have only 213 seats, well below the 289 needed for a majority.

National Rally leaders have laid out their conditions for support in recent days: measures on purchasing power, security and immigration; the introduction of proportional representation in the parliament; and “respect” for far-right lawmakers.

“Marine Le Pen gives the kiss of death to this figure and then that one. The National Rally has 142 lawmakers, you can’t ignore them,” centrist senator and Macron ally Hervé Marseille said in an interview with Le Monde.

Though the National Rally lost a parliamentary election it was tipped to win and missed an opportunity to run France, it has now emerged as the country’s kingmaker.

 Bad blood

Le Pen was an influential figure in this week’s negotiations to choose the next prime minister.

The whirlwind hunt for a new leader saw conservative heavyweight Xavier Bertrand emerge as the front-runner after a Tuesday meeting at which center-right lawmakers told Macron they would support a right-leaning prime minister.

Macron called Le Pen later that afternoon, according to a government official who, like others quoted here, was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

The two discussed the candidacy of Bertrand and also of former Socialist French Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, an early front-runner whose prospects had fizzled out by late Monday.

It’s not clear what was said between Le Pen and Macron, but she and Bertrand have bad blood. Bertrand once boasted of having “smashed the jaws” of the far right in Le Pen’s northern stronghold after beating her in the race to lead the Hauts-de-France region.

The National Rally threatened to “immediately reject” a Bertrand government regardless of his policies, a prospect Macron could ill afford. The left would likely have supported the far right’s efforts to torpedo Bertrand, thereby collapsing his government before it could get off the ground.

And so, on Thursday, Bertrand was out and Barnier was in.

The question is now whether Barnier, who will also have to compromise with his center-right and centrist backers, can satisfy the far right, which opposes many of the budget cuts that are likely to be proposed to fix France’s dire debt issues.

French President Emmanuel Macron may be relieved to have at last appointed a prime minister. | Alex Davidson/Getty Images

“Barnier appears at least to meet one of the criteria we’d demanded, which was to have someone who would respect different political forces and be able to speak with the National Rally,” Le Pen said. “That will be useful, as compromises will be needed to solve the budget situation.”

While the far right could still try to topple Barnier’s government, OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart said it may not want to accelerate another crisis.

“They have the fate of the government in their hands, but I’m not sure it’s in their interest to topple the government too quickly,” Jeanbart said.

“They could let things happen until the next presidential election,” he added, given that they realize “it’s difficult to run a country without winning the presidential election.”

 Unease in Macron’s camp

Macron’s dealings with the National Rally have sparked unease in his camp. After dissolving parliament following the far right’s dominant performance in June’s European election, the French president campaigned to keep the extremes out of power in Paris. He has now handed them a sword of Damocles to dangle over the next government.

One centrist lawmaker said that Thursday’s developments don’t “correspond to the spirit of the Republican front,” a reference to a traditional pact among mainstream parties to keep the far right out of power. The lawmaker said that Barnier’s fate was effectively “held by the National Rally.”

Another left-leaning parliamentarian from Macron’s party blamed the left for failing to “think outside the box.” After initially bickering internally, the New Popular Front put forward its own candidate, 37-year-old civil servant Lucie Castets, for the job of prime minister, insisting its first-place finish gave it the right to choose.

Macron quickly shot down Castets’ candidacy in the name of institutional stability, predicting she wouldn’t survive a vote of no confidence in the fractured National Assembly.

But Marine Tondelier, the leader of the Greens, said Macron “went looking for a figure who was further and further to the right” to satisfy the National Rally and ensure it wouldn’t censure the next government.

“He’s been constantly cozying up to the far right,” she said.

Clea Caulcutt

Sarah Paillou and Anthony Lattier contributed reporting.