The Sri Lankan people have given a thumping two-thirds majority in parliament to a once-fringe party whose founder was killed by the state—the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)—and its coalition, the National People’s Power (NPP). This marks a clear shift in direction for Sri Lanka since the JVP, which has never been in power before, has often spoken about common people’s rights and claimed that the party was led by communist ideals. 

This is the first time a single combination has achieved a brute majority under the proportional representation system. The JVP-led coalition has gone from three seats in the last parliament to an unprecedented super-majority in the tenth parliament. The NPP is expected to gain 160 seats in all, including those allocated through proportional representation. Its nearest rival, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), is expected to win just over 40 seats.

This means that Sajith Premadasa, the SJB leader, could continue as Leader of the Opposition. The largest Tamil party, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), is expected to get a total of six seats, and the former President Ranil Wickremesinghe-led New Democratic Front, a mere four. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s party, which had a majority in the outgoing parliament after winning the 2020 election, has been reduced to two seats.

In his campaign across the island, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake appealed to the people for a two-thirds majority in parliament so that he could implement his agenda, including tackling economic challenges, shoring up anti-poverty programs, cutting down on government wasteful expenditure, and clamping down on corruption. In the two months that he has been in office, however, the coalition did not make any significant disruptive moves, such as arresting former ministers or political heavyweights.

“Everyone, including bureaucrats, was in a wait-and-watch mode,” said a senior diplomat stationed in Colombo, who did not wish to be named. “They were all waiting for the parliamentary elections to conclude. Also, the bureaucracy is not used to this set of politicians,” he said. The JVP/NPP no longer has the luxury of inaction, given that the coalition now has a two-thirds majority.

Shift in ethnic equations?

For the first time in the island nation’s history, Tamils in the northern province district of Jaffna voted for the JVP, a Sinhala-Buddhist party, and ignored the bickering Tamil political parties, illustrating a fundamental change in the way politics is conducted in Sri Lanka. In fact, the NPP won both Vanni and Jaffna, traditionally hardline Tamil areas.

In Jaffna, the NPP won three seats alongside the ITAK, All Ceylon Tamil Congress, and an independent group. Though there are over 593,000 registered voters in Jaffna, only about 325,000 turned up at the booths. Nearly 10 per cent of the votes (over 32,000) were rejected because of the complicated voting process.

The ballot paper lists all political parties at the top, with individual candidates indicated by numbers below, without names. First, the voter must select a party and then vote for a set of numbers on the ballot paper beneath. There are no names against the numbers. For a ballot to be counted, the voter must select numbers from the party they voted for at the top.

After winning the Vanni district, the NPP secured two seats. Even in Colombo, a traditional United National Party (UNP) and now SJB stronghold, the NPP made significant gains. Following the demise of R. Sampanthan, the TNA leader, it was expected that his home district, Trincomalee, would be out of reach for Tamil political parties. The NPP won this district and garnered two seats, while the SJB and ITAK got one seat each.

In the Hill Country, where most Tamil plantation workers reside, the NPP made significant gains. In Nuwara Eliya, the NPP won five of the eight seats, while the SJB won two and the UNP, one. In the Southern Province, the Sinhala heartland and home to former Presidents Mahinda Rajapaksa and Gotabaya Rajapaksa, their party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, was nearly wiped out. The NPP secured 18 seats, while the SJB won two and the SLPP, just two.

The only exception to the JVP/NPP wave was Batticaloa, where the ITAK won. It secured three seats, while the NPP and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress won one each. In a dramatic turn of events in the district, Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan, alias Pillayan, a former militant who rose to become Chief Minister of the Eastern Province, failed to win his seat.

The story of this election is the massive number of candidates who contested in the minority-dominated north and east of Sri Lanka. In all, there were about 2,000 candidates for a mere 28 seats. In Jaffna (6 seats) and Batticaloa (5 seats), the number of candidates was nearly 400 each; in Vanni (6 seats), it was over 400; and in Ampara, it was over 600 (7 seats). In Trincomalee, there were over 200 candidates for the four seats.

The voter turnout was about 65 per cent, the lowest in almost a decade and a half. In the presidential election, the turnout was about 80 per cent. The NPP polled higher than all other political parties in all but one electoral district in the country. The story was the same when postal votes were counted earlier—the NPP won all but one district.

By around 7 AM on November 15, with nearly 70 per cent of the votes counted, the NPP surpassed the 5.63 million votes that the party’s candidate, Dissanayake, polled in the presidential election. By 9 AM, the party crossed the 6 million vote mark, with nearly 90 per cent of the votes counted. Over 17 million voters were eligible to exercise their franchise at 13,421 polling booths across the island.

Many former MPs and hopefuls fell by the wayside. The only member of the Rajapaksa clan to contest, former State Minister Shasheendra Rajapaksa, lost in Monaragala district. A relative of the Rajapaksa family, Nipuna Ranawaka, who won the highest number of votes in the 2020 election in the Matara district, lost in the same district. Daham Sirisena, son of former President Maithripala Sirisena, lost from the Central Polonnaruwa district.

Former Ministers Johnston Fernando, S.M. Chandrasena, Duminda Dissanayake, Pavithradevi Wanniarachchi, Premitha Bandara Tennakoon, Rohana Dissanayaka, Kanchana Wijesekera, Mahinda Amaraweera, Manusha Nanayakkara, Premalal Jayasekara, and Ramesh Pathirana all lost their seats, proving this was a wave election where individual appeal did not matter. Sri Lanka’s former cricket captain, T.M. Dilshan, lost his first attempt to enter parliament.

No excuses now

The NPP, formed in 2019, now has no excuse not to deliver. Among the biggest promises the JVP/NPP combine made was to abolish the executive presidency, which gives the President enormous powers—from replacing Supreme Court judges to changing ministers at whim to pardoning convicted murderers. The coalition’s approach toward the USD 2.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout will also come under close scrutiny.

The government will also have to balance its relations with India and China as geopolitical tensions become a reality in the region. The JVP considers China its friend and has extensive contacts with the Chinese Communist Party. The JVP also realises that India is a reality. An Indian diplomat said it was possible to do business with the new government because those who lead the coalition are “grounded” and “practical” leaders.

R.K. Radhakrishnan

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