In the end, why change? Nine days after the fall of Michel Barnier’s government, on Friday the 13^th of December Emmanuel Macron entrusted François Bayrou with the task of forming a new government. The “new era” that has been promised by the French president thus begins with the appointment of one of his key allies to Matignon, at the end of a 2024 marked by two electoral defeats for the presidential camp and its loss of a majority in the National Assembly.

Bayrou, the president of the centrist Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem), will prioritise negotiating with the various political groups to ensure he is able govern without also being brought down by a no confidence vote. A daunting task lies ahead; it is like a chef who, after botching a bouillabaisse, returns to the kitchen with the same ingredients, the same utensils, but a new sous-chef.

To reassure themselves, strategists at the Élysée emphasise François Bayrou’s “sense of dialogue” and his reputation as a wise elder statesman, while political insiders relish his reportedly cordial relations with both the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and the Socialist Party (PS). However, these arguments echo those made at the time of Michel Barnier’s appointment, yet the “Brexit man” - hailed as a master of compromise - ultimately saw his administration founder on the rocks of a parliamentary minority.

François Bayrou in Paris on September 18^th 2023. © Photo Xose Bouzas / Hans Lucas via AFP

It is difficult to work out what, at this stage, might prevent François Bayrou from meeting the same fate, as a sense of déjà vu looks set to dominate future events. Within the government, most key ministers expect to remain in their posts, including Bruno Retailleau (interior), Rachida Dati (culture), Jean-Noël Barrot (foreign affairs), Sébastien Lecornu (armed forces), and Catherine Vautrin (regions and decentralisation).

While the rightwing Les Républicains (LR) party is poised to negotiate its participation at a high price, its involvement seems almost certain, as do those of Macron’s own party Renaissance and its centre-right ally Horizons. There will be little visible change at the head of the government either, with a 73-year-old man extolling “compromise” and the “general interest” replacing another 73-year-old man who also championed “compromise” and the “general interest".

There is something striking, moreover, in Emmanuel Macron’s decision to appoint the two oldest prime ministers of the Fifth Republic in succession, both quintessential embodiments of the partisan dynamics of past decades. Having been elected on a promise of reinvention and renewal, the president now approaches the end of his decade in power firmly entrenched in the party politics he once decried in speech after speech.

For François Bayrou, this marks a victory for persistence, after covetting the premiership in 2017, 2018, 2019 and at every rumoured reshuffle. His acquittal in February in the trial involving MoDem and its European parliamentary assistants firmly placed him back in the game, as he himself has observed in recent months - even if an appeal hearing is set for 2025.

The mayor of of the south-west town of Pau and high commissioner for planning, who has not ruled out a presidential run in 2027, has now reached a significant milestone in a career filled with roles and offices. He served as minister of education from 1993 to 1997, briefly as minister of justice in 2017, as an MP for 19 years, an MEP for three years, as president of a département or county council for nine years, and as a party leader for three decades.

 Main objective: avoiding censure by the PS

At the prime minister’s official Matignon residence, where the two men met later on Friday for the official handover of power, the incoming and outgoing heads of government might well have reminisced about the good old days of the “reformers”. This was group of young rightwing MPs who wanted to modernise their political party’s ideology and methods. Both François Bayrou and Michel Barnier were part of it, alongside figures such as the late Philippe Séguin, former prime minister François Fillon and Philippe de Villiers. That was back in 1986.

Four decades on, Bayrou and Barnier are likely to reflect on how much the political landscape has changed, faced with this era of a three-way split in political groupings, a seething cauldron of a National Assembly, and an unpredictable president. In short, all the ingredients that make this latest endeavour at government feel like yet another version of Mission Impossible. But François Bayrou is no Tom Cruise, and the tools at his disposal are far less impressive than Ethan Hunt’s arsenal.

Talking with his confidants and in conversations with the president - who was initially sceptical not to say reluctant - Bayrou has hinted that he knows how to manage the challenge. The crucial issue preoccupying Emmanuel Macron and his inner circle is this: how to persuade the socialists – part of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) broad leftwing alliance - not to support a vote of no confidence in the government. The former presidential candidate believes he can win over the PS group, and perhaps even the communist group, by offering a few concessions either in policy or governing style, such as for instance abandoning the use of Article 49-3, a constitutional device which pushes through legislation without a vote but then triggers an automatic confidence motion.

To achieve this, the president was intent on appointing someone rather closer to the Socialist Party than Michel Barnier. He offered the role to former foreign affairs minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, a close ally and the only minister from President François Hollande’s socialist government (2012 -2017) whom Macron retained after his election. “I was approached, but I declined,” Le Drian confirmed on Friday in Saint-Brieuc in Brittany, north-western France. “In two and a half years, I’ll be 80. It wouldn’t be sensible,” he said.

Other names aligned with the centre-left within Macron’s camp were also considered, put forward or even discreetly approached by the president. They included Roland Lescure, the former industry minister who briefly emerged as a favourite in political circles. However, his candidacy provoked strong resistance from the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), MoDem, and allies of the conservative interior minister Bruno Retailleau, who viewed his appointment as a “casus belli”.

 A difficult appointment?

In the political horse race for Matignon, centrist thoroughbred François Bayrou seemed to occupy every position - first, second, third and out of contention entirely. His arrival at the Élysée Palace on Friday morning at 8.30am was taken as a sign that it was a done deal. In reality, it was not. According to Le Monde, the president had called Bayrou at dawn to inform him that he would not be heading to Matignon. It was only later that morning, during a meeting at which Bayrou reportedly expressed his full fury, that the president’s decision changed once again.

French president Emmanuel Macron speaks with François Bayrou in Paris on November 22^nd 2023. © Photo Ludovic Marin / AFP

Over and above the anecdotal and often unpredictable nature of presidential appointments, this episode reveals the disruptive influence that the new prime minister wields over Emmanuel Macron. Since his alliance with Macron in 2017, Bayrou has made a habit of applying pressure and creating waves: whether it was over the allocation of candidates for constituencies or ministerial posts, Macron’s plans to raise the retirement age to 65 through a simple amendment, or his choice of Élisabeth Borne (Macron’s third prime minister) over Bayrou for Matignon.

This is also why François Bayrou has not been appointed as prime minister until now and why the dynamics of his relationship with the Élysée will be closely monitored by political observers. On policy, however, it seems unlikely that Bayrou’s approach will stray far from Macron’s. That said, the MoDem leader has occasionally voiced dissenting opinions, particularly on the taxation of windfall profits, the abolition of the wealth tax, and the so-called “knowledge revolution” in schools.

The challenge now lies in reconciling Bayrou’s strong views, the president’s priorities, and the necessity of making concessions to the rightwing Les Républicains (LR), who want Bruno Retailleau retained as interior minister and an immigration law passed soon, as well as to the socialist Left, who may demand movement on pension reform or the minimum wage. Proportional representation, a long-standing political goal of the new prime minister, is also likely to be central to his discussions with various political groups in the coming weeks.

When his name was already being floated for Matignon in August, Bayrou set out in Le Figaro newspaper how he would compose his government. It would be a team that was “selfless, pluralistic and coherent, made up of individuals with strong character” and “experience”, ranging from the socialist left to the Republican right. A further “very important” point, he went on to say, was that they must also “understand what is being conveyed by votes cast for the far-right and the far-left”.

This is quintessential François Bayrou - complex and not always easy to grasp. The former literature professor likes to take his time, both in speech and in action. At the Ministry of Education in the 1990s, he countered President Jacques Chirac’s reformist zeal with his practice of prolonged compromise - a trait his critics equated with inaction. Time is precisely what Emmanuel Macron is desperately seeking, particularly as having already done it once this year, the president is unable to use his power to dissolve the National Assembly again until next July.

Ilyes Ramdani

14 December 2024 à 10h37