Economist Michael Roberts states: “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a terrible impact on the Ukrainian people. 46,000 civilians and perhaps 500,000 soldiers have died. Millions have fled abroad and millions more have been forced to leave their homes. Kyiv has lost 50,000 workers. Ukraine’s GDP has fallen by 25% and 7.1 million Ukrainians currently live in poverty”.

When Russia launched its general invasion in February 2022, the United States initially advised Zelensky to flee the country, believing there was no chance of stopping the Russian army. However, the Ukrainian people managed to push back Russian troops, to the surprise of the United States and Putin. It was then that the United States and NATO began to provide military and economic aid to Ukraine. However, the support was limited, so that Ukraine could resist but not enough to defeat Russia. This objective was never at the heart of the matter.

We should bear all this in mind when properly assessing the change that has occurred since Trump took over the US presidency. Now, in exchange for the aid provided by the US (which has meant enormous business for the arms industry), it wants to impose on Ukraine the exploitation of rare minerals in its lands, and also, as a stab in the back, force it to accept the geographical area stolen by Putin if it wants to achieve peace. That is, the alliance of two imperialisms wants to colonise Ukraine, each according to its own interests.

It is not the first time that a great imperialist power has changed course and aligned with an old enemy. Recall Richard Nixon’s sudden approach to China in the early 1970s, which caused the Vietnam War to drag on for several years (Mao reduced aid to North Vietnam).

But there is an even more surprising precedent: the Hitler-Stalin pact of 1939. The alliance between fascist Germany and Stalinist Russia gave the green light to the Second World War.

As then, today the fate of Ukraine affects the whole world, as it has put on the table the question of the rights and sovereignty of small states. If Trump’s pact with Putin on the division of Ukraine’s territory and natural resources goes ahead, it will set a precedent similar to the Munich Agreement of 1938 and demonstrate that small states are mere pawns in the game of great powers. This should concern us.

If this so-called peace plan were to go ahead, in one part of Ukraine Putin would secure annexation and gain part of the territory he does not yet control, and the other part would become an economic colony of American imperialism. In addition to securing the annexation, Russia would rebuild its currently relatively reduced military apparatus (Russian forces are almost exhausted due to the great losses they have suffered, especially in soldiers and heavy weapons, such as tanks and artillery pieces) to prepare for new attacks on neighbouring countries in the future. Although the hypothesis that Russia will pursue all of Europe is selfish and false, as it has neither sufficient strength nor interest to do so, it cannot be hidden that it has imperialist interests in relation to its neighbours, especially Finland and the Baltic countries. Moldova and Georgia are also in the crosshairs. The fear of Russia in these countries may seem excessive to us, but they have reasons for it. History bears witness.

The preaching of the oligarchs and militarists of “If you want peace, prepare for war!” cannot be ours. Against this idea we propose, “No to the war that kills us! No to the peace that oppresses us!”, against the false Pax Romana.

Things are clear in that sense. The European Union wants to involve us in the arms race and foster a climate of war under the pretext of helping Ukraine. They want to spend 800,000 million on armaments and armies. Of these, 650,000 million will have to come from each state and the 150,000 million will be pooled debt backed by the Union’s budget.

We must express our total rejection of these intentions and, at the same time, condemn the presence of NATO in our territories and work for its dissolution. Against all military blocs (NATO, CSTO, AUKUS), whether from the Western or Eastern bloc, and in favour of denuclearisation.

However, beyond the Ukraine issue, it is useful to understand what is behind the Trump-Putin pact. For a long time we have condemned the imperialist stance of the current neoliberal European Union or the Democratic Party in the US, but beware! What both Trump and Putin want is a more right-wing and more reactionary Europe!, in which Le Pen, Orban, Meloni, Abascal and similar figures will be the new masters of Europe.

In the short term, this plan aims to suppress Ukraine and protect Trumpist parties and far-right sovereignists in the West.

Ours must be a different path: internationalist, anti-imperialist and anti-racist. Without fossil fuels, without nuclear energy and without agro-industry. A different Europe, democratic, social, feminist, open, generous and ecological. Developing social security, strengthening public services, fighting against inequalities and building a Europe that eradicates poverty. One which would socialise finance, energy, the arms industry (converting it to other tasks) and other key sectors.

This is the best way to achieve true peace. Here and everywhere.

Joxe Iriarte is a militant of Alternatiba

Joxe Iriarte, Bikila

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