To be sure, Russia is pursuing wider objectives to change the balance of power and the respective spheres of influence of Russia and the ÙSA in Europe. But its first priority is to institutionalise the dependency of the Ukrainian state on Russia. Ukraine is the keystone Putin wants to reset in the arch over the European security order. And he needs the Western powers to help him do that. As I suggested in my January 24 post, the Americans and the most powerful European states are open to persuasion. The delegation of US senators visiting Kyiv in mid-January declared publicly that they had come to show solidarity with Ukraine, to warn Russia of the most severe sanctions if it invades.. But they had another, private, message for the Ukrainian officials and legislators they met: what kind of compromises could the Ukrainians make to the Russians in order to move forward and implement the Minsk Accords [1].

The Guardian reported on 27 January that Joe Biden told Volodymyr Zelensky that “there was a distinct possibility the Russians could invade Ukraine in February”. Zelensky told the press afterwards that the situation was no more tense than before. “I am not saying an escalation is not possible [but] we don’t need this panic”. The subtext of this publicly aired exchange goes like this: Biden: you have one month before the Russians lose patience with you. Make a deal with them now. Zelensky: What, re you trying to panic me?

The Europeans are also signalling to Putin that they don’t stand shoulder to shoulder with the USA or with Ukraine. They have distinct interests to protect in their relations with Russia. French president Emanuel Macron has long been calling for a separate European dialogue with Russia. Putin acknowledged his efforts by saying Macron is “the only one he could have serious discussions with”. Germany has refused flights over its airspace to UK planes shipping weapons to Ukraine or to permit Latvia to deliver German made weapons. It claims its constitution prohibits Germany from sending arms to conflict zones, though it has provided arms to Peshmerga fighters in Northern Iraq. Otherwise,

Germany is distinguished from other leading NATO members by its silence. Western sanctions against Russia have a damaging impact on Germany which is the most important source of capital investments into Russia of any country and the single most important destination for Russia’s exports. Powerful German business interests are holding on to see Russian gas finally flow to them through the Nord Stream pipeline.

The British government squirms with unease over any suggestion it should impose sanctions against Russian capitalists who use British financial services to protect their assets and who donate generously to the ruling Conservative Party. Thus, the American, French, German and British governments are signalling they too want a deal on Ukraine with the Russian government that will harm none of them, but that will cost Ukraine, if necessary, more of its already violated national sovereignty. On the annexation of Crimea and the raped Budapest Declaration of 1994 there is a embarrassed silence. No-one wants to talk of the ongoing war – it’s a “conflict” – or Russia’s repeated violations of the Minsk Accords these past eight years.

They will all now try to bring the Ukrainians to a compromise and a new round of talks on the basis of the 2015 Minsk II Accords, Russia’s preferred negotiating platform. In my next post I will consider the suitability of the Minsk Accords as a way to peace in Eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine Solidarity Campaign

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